• by John Gaffney , May 27, 2003

Television audiences may require a more rapid evaluation of spending levels than previously thought, according to new research. A recent IMS study of Nielsen Media Research numbers states that changes in target audience reach in 2001, especially for women 25-54, have led to measurable shifts in reach delivery of the broadcast networks, syndicators, and the cable networks.

"In order to achieve the same '96 reach in today's world, you need to buy more Network GRPs. For cable you can buy fewer GRPs to achieve '96 reach," said IMS Rob Wolf, IMS EVP and head of the IMS Advanced Analytics Group.

The IMS report is based on analysis of the last three Nielsen Cume Studies. Those studies form the basis for building reach/frequency systems that help media planners estimate what portion of a target population will be reached. The analysis has important implications for national TV planning, according to Wolf. Not only are adjustments possibly needed to reach the women 25-54 group, the same GRP trends are evident in the men 18-49 target audience.

To analyze the last three Nielsen Cume Studies, the IMS Advanced Analytics Group created mock schedules that demonstrated the changes in reach at various GRP (Gross Rating Points). The evaluation was conducted for two key demographic targets: Women 25-54 and Men 18-49. Compared to '96, target audience reach was down across all major network dayparts (Early Morning, Daytime, Evening News, Primetime and Late Night) particularly within Daytime and Late Night. Daytime reach potential among women 25-54, for example, was down from 51% in 1996 to 41% in 2001. For men 18-49, reach potential for the late night daypart dropped from 40 to 33%.

Reach among cable networks however, rose consistently. For women 25-54 cable's total reach potential rose from 73 to 80%. For men 18 to 49 it rose from 71% in 1996 to 75% in 2001. Syndication reach potential fell slightly for both groups.

The declines in Network prime reach appear to be coming from a migration of low- to middle-income viewers to cable programming. According to the IMS analysis, networks lost roughly three percent of all women viewers between 25-54. The networks, however, are holding upper income viewers, especially women, according to the study. Men 18-49 also lost about three percentage points of potential reach.