• by Karl Greenberg , May 8, 2008

What's the big deal with gluten? And what is it, anyway? Who cares--you don't need it, and soon you'll know that. Gluten-free is just one of several new food trends that the Center for Culinary Development (CCD) says is going to show up in greater quantity on store shelves and restaurants--including the fast kind--in coming years.

The San Francisco-based product development company just published a retrospective look at food trends since 2004 that charts the appearance and popular growth of foods and food additives. The group's "Culinary Trend Mapping" report says future trends can be extrapolated from current products like green tea, pomegranate, sea salt or chipotle. Such products, says the group, start out as an exotic or niche offering in ethnic foods, and them move into the mainstream in five stages, based on consumer demand for health foods, ethnic variety and premium products.

Kara Nielsen, trend analyst for CCD, says the group charts evolution in a food's popularity on a five-stage chart. "Stage one is something we see in fine dining or ethnic food," she says, adding that stage two is specialty-food-oriented retail and media channels, like Gourmet Magazine and stores like Sur La Table. Stage three would find the item in mainstream restaurants like Applebee's or Chili's, and retail stores targeting recreational cooks. Stage four finds such products getting general market coverage in family and women's magazines. Finally, by Stage five the product would be showing up on grocery shelves or in fast-food menus either as a stand-alone product, flavoring or functional food.

Nielsen says health and wellness, ethnic foods and premium foods are broad categories under which reside market drivers like convenience, artisan food or natural foods.

Among emerging trends: Goji berries, non-functional foods (additives one sees only on the label) and the above-mentioned gluten-free SKUs (restaurants like P.F. Chang's, and Outback Steak House are, per Nielsen, offering gluten-free menu items.) Another emerging trend: "hue-trition" in which foods are touted for their healthful properties based on color. "Purple beverages, for example," says Nielsen. "Blueberries, black currants, and green tea as a functional ingredient in things like oatmeal and cereal."

Other health and wellness products that have gained a foothold in the U.S. market are Roobios, which appeared on the scene in 2006; yerba mate; guarana and acai. Among ethnic foods, bubble tea, lemongrass, edamame, and dulce de leche--all of which appeared in 2004 or 2005--are gaining quick acceptance.

If pho, sambal, Manchego cheese, quinoa, yuzu, mole, and soba noodles don't ring a bell, it is because--per CCD--they have hit a speed bump at stage two.

Nielsen says the group expects future trends to include mood foods, foods that offer satiety via artificial fillers. Among the ethnic foods, Vietnamese food, Moroccan and generally North African food will grow in popularity.

Healthy lifestyle products will continue to be the most dominant driver of food choices, with new "superfruit" products like mangosteen now entering the U.S. market partly because of changes in import rules. Other fruits, such as Brazilian Capuacu, along with high antioxidants, omega three, and high-fiber products will multiply in the U.S., per CCD.