• by David Goetzl  @dgoetzl, June 4, 2008

Predictions that broadcasters would suffer from limp upfront demand, perhaps due to weakened economic conditions, appear to have been off considerably.

A report from Wachovia Capital Markets released Tuesday suggested that the market could close by Friday, with CPM increases in the mid- to high-single-digit ranges.

That figure is higher than analysts had forecast, frustrating buyers who had hoped increases would fall below last year's.

A grim report issued by the influential Merrill Lynch analyst Jessica Reif Cohen on May 6 linked this year's market to ones conducted during the last two recessions. In her best-case scenario, Reif Cohen projected that NBC and CBS would receive CPM increases of 3%, ABC, 4%, and Fox, 5%. In a worst-case scenario, all four networks would have flat CPMs.

Reif Cohen's most striking predictions came in upfront volume--where she suggested ABC and CBS could lose 15%, NBC could drop 13% and Fox could decline by 12%. As with CPMs up, those estimates will need to be re-examined.

Some of Reif Cohen's projections were based on poor performances among local broadcast stations--where "economic weakness is having a negative impact" on spending. Once again, broadcasters seem to have found enough demand to drive pricing jumps.