• by David Goetzl  @dgoetzl, June 25, 2008

A top researcher in the digital future space offered an intriguing theory Tuesday as to why TV will continue to be a flourishing medium: the downfall of dial-up. The logic: when dial-up was the principal means of accessing the Internet, people spent more time away from the TV screen; now with broadband, they are spending more time in front of it.

At the Advertising Research Foundation measurement conference in New York, Jeffrey Cole--director of the USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future--said that prior to 2004, dial-up-powered computers in general were located outside of the central TV room, perhaps in an office. Back then, accessing the Internet was so time-consuming that people would generally log on and spend some 20 to 30 minutes per sitting. That took away from TV time, Cole said.

Now, with broadband "always on," the computer is usually located in the central TV area. People log on and off frequently--perhaps up to 50 times a day--for mere minutes at a time. They want the computer where they are spending so much time: the lead television area, the den, the family room, etc.

Cole's conclusion: "In the broadband era, the Internet (is) no threat to television." He said that television, defined broadly as content on multiple screens, will continue to thrive. TV, he said, will "be a constant companion."

Disputing theories that people will not watch lengthy content on their small mobile screens, he said 30- and 60-minute shows will grow in popularity there, with people either watching all at once or in parts. Sitting in airports whiling away time is an ideal venue for mobile screening.

In his address at the event, Cole also suggested that newspapers will thrive in the Internet era.

Bucking convention, he said the Internet is a gift for the industry. As a result of the Web's growth, he said newspapers are now back in the breaking news business. Internet speed is forcing them to post information immediately--particularly in the sports and financial arenas. This drives repeat Web traffic and potentially more exposure to advertising, compared to the traditional one-time-only exposure in the morning.

Newspapers, he said, have "the greatest opportunity they've ever faced." Before, they couldn't compete as well with the immediacy of CNN or ESPN. Now, the Web's speed offers that opportunity, he said.