• by Erik Sass  @eriksass1, July 16, 2008

It may be summertime, but the living ain't easy for radio. Radio revenues probably dropped 7% in June compared to the same month last year, according to veteran radio analyst Jim Boyle of CL King and Associates--delivering a heavy blow to the industry in what is traditionally the second-biggest month of the year in terms of revenue.

The report follows an 8% decline in May, traditionally the biggest month. The decline also exceeds Wall Street's forecast of a 4% decline.

In fact, radio has underperformed Wall Street's negative predictions in nine of the last 12 months--in most cases turning in a percentage drop at least double that forecast by analysts and investors.

Radio exceeded analyst expectations during the months of February and April, and it met expectations in only one month (last August).

As in previous months, Boyle noted that radio stations in small markets are faring much better than their counterparts in large markets, with mid-sized markets on the fence. That's obviously good news for small-market radio, but it's extra bad news for many mid-sized and big markets, as their declines were in fact even steeper than the overall 7% decline suggests.

According to Boyle, the average small market saw revenue decline just 4% in June, while big markets tumbled 8%. Confirming the existence of a trend, Boyle noted that small and mid-sized markets beat big markets in 25 of the last 29 months.