• by David Kaplan , October 13, 2004

With the dominance of reality programming surging ahead this season with 10 more hours of unscripted shows on the broadcast networks compared to last fall, the bubble may be about to burst, according to a study by Interpublic Group's Magna Global USA.

For the first time, the number of hours of scripted series on the announced six broadcast network schedules is declining by 10 hours (73 to 63), while the number of reality hours is increasing by 10 hours (from 10 to 20). But those numbers could represent the summit of the reality mountain as scripted dramas and comedies appear to be making a combeback, said Steve Sternberg, executive vice president and director of audience analysis at Magna.

"Given the number of failed and borderline entries so far this season, and the success of some new scripted series--'CSI: NY,' 'Lost,' 'Desperate Housewives'--a reversal of last season may occur, with scripted series replacing reality by mid-season, particularly if the several new reality shows about to come our way flop," Sternberg said. "At first glance of the fall season, it's likely that those 10 scripted hours will be back on the schedule--at least five will be back this mid-season."

The fall-off in ratings for the second-season debut of NBC's "The Apprentice," which has since rebounded a bit, highlights the potential danger in relying too much on a successful reality show, which tends to offer less clues as to when it will either "jump the shark" or simply experience a steady decline in viewership.

"Very few successful scripted series suffer any significant decline before their third or fourth seasons--and you can often spot signs that a ratings drop is coming," Sternberg said. "With reality series, you generally can't. Fox will find this out when 'American Idol'--which currently accounts for more than 20% of its regular season adults 18-49 rating points--finally slips."

Another pitfall that Sternberg finds for the networks resulting from the glut of reality shows is the baldly repetitious quality of the shows, which could dilute the quality of the various networks' singular brand identity.

"Unlike many cable networks, whose genre is their brand, broadcast networks are branded primarily by the programming they air," he said. "Too many reality shows put a network's brand on its ear. Certainly, 'American Idol' is associated with Fox, 'Survivor' with CBS, and 'The Apprentice' with NBC. But too many of the lower-rated entries potentially make one network less distinguishable from another. Scripted series success is essential to positively brand a broadcast network."