• by Karl Greenberg , October 31, 2008

Consumers still aren't putting fuel efficiency at the top of their must-have lists when they shop for a new vehicle, but they may want to. After all, they will be paying a little extra for fuel efficiency and green powertrain technology as automakers scramble to meet new federal fuel economy standards in coming years.

J.D. Power and Associates' 2008 Initial Quality Study, completed this summer, reported that fuel economy is seventh on the list of factors that influenced consumers' decisions to purchase or lease their new vehicles. Numbers one through six were reliability/durability, comfort, quality of workmanship, external styling, dealer experience and performance. That's up a notch from 2006, when the firm last tabulated purchase factors, and gas mileage was eighth on the list.

Ford Motor's own research suggests that 38% of new-vehicle intenders are willing to sacrifice performance for better fuel economy. Such considerations aren't idle. The National Highway Transportation Safety Authority in November will release the new proposal that automakers achieve 35 CAFE (corporate average fuel economy) by 2020. Current standards are 23.5 for trucks and 27.5 for cars.

Not only will the new rules change mileage, they will determine the future direction of technology.

John German--manager of environmental policy analysis at Honda, which supports the new CAFE rules--says the new schedule is much more profound than it appears to be. "The reality is not 35 mpg by 2020, but something more aggressive" because of how the numbers are derived from a cost/benefit analysis. He says the mandate calls for a 4.5% average annual increase in fuel economy between 2011 and 2015. "That is three times the historical rate of the introduction of new technology and two times what Japan and Europe have done."

The cost of new technology devoted to reducing greenhouse gases and saving fuel will devolve to consumers. "There will be a 56-month period of ownership before fuel savings realizes the full payback of costs of the new technology," says German. He adds that the new rules also mean something else: technical improvements in the past two decades have addressed aspects like vehicle comfort, performance, style, versatility, utility and amenities. Now, says German, technical advancements will go almost entirely to fuel economy.

Ford, for example, will launch the 2010 Ford Fusion and sibling Mercury Milan mid-size sedans next year with big differences ... under the hood. New engine options--such as six-speed transmission and a smaller engine--will, says the company, garner a 10% improvement in fuel efficiency.

The company is gunning for Honda Accord and Toyota Camry, saying that versions of the cars with the 2.5-liter engine will get 3 more mpg on the highway than Accord and 2 more mpg than the Camry.

Ford says it wants to upgrade or replace nearly all of its North American engines by the end of 2010.

Ben Knight, VP of automotive engineering at Torrance, Calif.-based Honda R&D Americas, says automakers' short-term response will be fuel efficiency gains; long-term adjustments will be more revolutionary.

"Our focus is on more compact engines and affordable hybrid technology," he says. He says the company is putting its Integrated Motor Assist System into the forthcoming Insight, a five-passenger vehicle that the company hopes to sell100,000 unit sales per year in the U.S., and two times that globally.