• by Sarah Mahoney  @mahoney_sarah, November 4, 2008

It's hard to believe that many families would consciously alter their holiday shopping budget around the outcome of the presidential election--and we're betting that even Sen. John McCain and Sen. Barack Obama will get the same number of ties, sweaters and Itty Bitty Book Lights, no matter what.

But a new survey from the International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs finds that consumers say the election is exerting a significant influence on their gift budgets, and that they are likely to spend more for the holidays if Obama wins.

The survey, fielded between Oct. 30 and Nov. 1, asked 1,000 consumers to rate factors influencing their holiday gift-giving budget. The election scored a 6.2 out of 10, making it more important than the tanking stock market--which scored a 5.5--but not as important as the high cost of living, which scored a 6.9. Surprisingly, job security scored a relatively low 4.3.

If Obama wins, 8% of those polled say they will increase their holiday budget; if McCain wins, 5% say they will do so.

But some retail experts are skeptical that the outcome of the election will have much impact either way. "Overall, consumers are lacking confidence about their personal economy, the national economy, and the global economy," says Tim Henderson, senior director and consumer strategist for Iconoculture, a cultural trend research company. "They'll keep their wallets and purses pretty tightly closed. Sure, there may be some initial sense of euphoria, and if their candidate wins, they will feel more confident. But it will be a short honeymoon."

But Henderson is quick to point out that just because consumers will be careful with how much they spend, they won't be stingy with the Christmas spirit. He also points out that marketers who are able to tap into that spiritual generosity are likely to do well.

Macy's holiday "Believe" campaign, which generates store traffic while fund-raising for Make-A-Wish Foundation, and Target's "Nice Twice" effort, which allows consumers who buy "nicely priced" items to donate directly to the Salvation Army or St. Jude's Children Research Hospital, are two examples. "We expect to see more such campaigns," he says. "This year especially, people are looking forward to a holiday laced with generosity, thankfulness, and friendship."

But what the holiday shoppers are most excited about is not Thanksgiving or Christmas, he says. "More than anything, our research has found that people are looking forward to New Year's--and the ability to turn the page on a rough 2008, and look ahead to a new year, a new presidency, and a new start. Consumers are ready and willing to move on, but they will need a little more confidence before they start spending again."