• by Keith Richman , December 18, 2008

There has never been a more interesting time to be on the front lines of the media business.A declining ad market, technological changes and generational shifts in consuming content are all converging to make it nearly impossible to predict what will happen over the next year.

Despite this difficulty, our research on men aged 18-34, and our consistent discussions with advertisers and partners clearly indicate that a few trends are likely to emerge this year:

•       Online video viewership will rise more than predicted

o       As more and more content moves online, audiences of every age group will find something compelling to watch.   It is not just teenagers watching Gossip Girl or prank videos; it will be parents watching Ed Sullivan clips and kids watching Elmo.   Content begets audience which drives more content.

•        Movies are the new music

o       With storage getting cheaper, Apple sales increasing and DVD ripping software being easy and free (mactheripper, handbrake, etc), audiences will find it easier to copy a friend’s library than they will to rent or buy DVDs.

•        Battle over video budgets

o       As more audiences engage with video online, digital and traditional media buying groups will battle for control of the video ad dollars that will migrate from television to the Internet.  

•         Decreased quality of print editorial

o       Newspapers are caught between a rock and a hard place.  A terrible print ad market will prompt deeper cuts to their editorial departments, which will make growing their Web presence more difficult.  Standout brands like The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times will thrive as they continue to invest online.

•       Audience fragmentation

o       There are so many media choices already today and it is getting easier and easier to start a compelling Web property that appeals to some audience segment.   As audiences continue to fragment, sites that can aggregate large numbers of eyeballs in an engaged manner will thrive, even in an ad recession. 

•        Webisodic content will become profitable

o       As dollars shift online, the economics for investing in original Web content will become more attractive for any publisher with a sales organization.   This will increase investment in video content which will fuel additional audience (see above)!

•        Online ad standards will continue to emerge

o       The video ad gold rush of recent years created too many ad formats, which frustrated viewers and marketers alike. As the medium continues to prove its worth, standard formats are evolving to deliver better messages and entertain viewers.  This will make it easier and easier for advertisers to spend money online.

•         Online ad metrics will begin to emerge

o       Online technology today can report on user behavior and preferences in a way that few other mediums can or will be able to match.   This is a problem in that everyone reports whatever metrics suit them best.  A down economy will force online publishers to work together to advance their cause in unison.  These metrics will be supported by research that can further speak to the effectiveness of the medium.

•        Ad targeting will become increasingly important

o       Marketers are looking for campaign efficiency and want to reach the right audience in the right places at the right time.  As online publishers more effectively communicate their ability to provide targeting, targeting will increase in prominence.

When the dust settles and we scan the landscape on New Year’s Day 2010, we’ll see that rapidly changing technology and behavioral patterns will have altered marketers’ buying opportunities for the better. Advertisers will increasingly be able to reach the right audiences and demonstrate an ROI that few if any other media will be able to deliver.  Despite the rough seas expected in the next 12 months, 2009 — in retrospect — will be the year that changed everything.