July 22 - 25, 2024
Commentary
How Gen Z, Millennials Relate To Declining Birth Rates
- by Kathy Sheehan , Op-Ed Contributor, May 18, 2021
This news comes on the heels of the U.S. Census recently reporting that the birthrate in the country has dropped to the second lowest since the Census Bureau began tracking it in 1790.
What is even more interesting is that the drop in birth rates has been across every race and ethnicity: down 8% for Asian Americans, 3% for Hispanics; 4% for Black and White women; and 6% for American Indian/Alaskan women.
These findings have already started ringing alarm bells among policy makers and demographers. Is the U.S. now on the same track as a market like Japan, with a shrinking population and inverted population pyramid? And if so, what does this mean for us?
New York Times correspondent Sabrina Tavernise recently commented on “The Daily” podcast that population “growth means vitality . . . and decline in some sense signifies a death or weakness.”
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According to recent research from Cassandra, many younger Americans express some trepidation about the current state of the world and question whether this is the right environment for raising children. Of those who don’t already have children, 50% of Gen Z-ers and only 44% of millennials in the U.S. report that they want to have kids. These numbers are low compared to other markets like the U.K,. where 6 out of 10 Gen Z-ers report wanting to have children.
But there is more behind the declining birth rates than just the current state of the world. This research shows that for many younger Americans, familial relationships are taking a backseat. For example, more than a quarter of all Gen Z-ers say that the most important relationship they have is with themselves. Boyfriends/girlfriends/partners and parents are secondary and/or tertiary.
“The data from this report is very timely as it reaffirms what we know about the importance of independence amongst Gen Z and Gen Y, while also revealing that their need to protect their own health and safety supersedes that of having children for the majority of them,” remarked Jackie Hernández, co-founder of New Majority Ready.
Another major driver of population growth is immigration. The share of U.S. population growth attributed to immigration has, up until very recently, been steadily increasing since the 1940s.
Among Hispanic/Latin X youth, 45% of those who do not already have children report wanting to have kids in the future, pretty much on par with non-Hispanics. Hispanic youth also say that their most important relationship is the one that they have with themselves.
These findings suggest that there is more behind today’s declining birth rate than meets the eye, pointing to a much more fundamental shift in how young Americans compared to other generations before them are thinking about themselves, their relationships and their own identity.
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"These findings have already started ringing alarm bells among policy makers and demographers. Is the U.S. now on the same track as a market like Japan, with a shrinking population and inverted population pyramid?"
The premise of the article makes sense - attitudes about families, children, and traditional relationships.
However, the U.S. population is not shrinking. Birth rates are down but immigration, legal/illegal, is up. The comparison to Japan is off the mark.
Totally agree with Japan comparison as a non-starter on what to date is not a depopulation trend, nor with our economies, which aren't similiar in comparison with output/industries/consumer spend, entertainment, autos, for sure, culturally, etc.
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That said, and with (above) 25% of Gen Zers apparently defining their "individuality" as one that also means that they come "first" over their parents, siblings, etc....is incredulus within itself. It makes no sense...curious on the methodology since it seems doubtful so many of these young people are truly informed in their chosen media consumption patterns on the U.S. and world news...its not like they are reading The Economist or FT, so, with their opinions formed via mass media outlets...they are mislead. Lastly, consistent with research I've read that this young generation continues to (broadly) be spoiled by the parents, entitled, etc...especially with affluent and up demos...so that makes the whole notion of "they come first' even worse as to how they view themselves to other family and humans in general! I don't buy at all its about the world and sustainabilty of life, etc...other thoughts?
The declining birth rate and the aging of the population is nothing new----it's been going on for many decades and correlates very well with the growing emancipation of women---especially as educated members of the work force and business owners. Just check the stats.
As for the attitudes of millennials about who they care most about---assuming that any survey can get a valid answer to such questions---this simply reflects the entrenched position of "The Age Of Me"----as opposed to its predecessor "The Age Of We". This began in earnest during the VietNam War and is now rampant---you see it everywhere. All that matters is "me" or my own little group.
Sadly, this is a sign of a country well into its maturity, not a young, vibrant nation, expanding and just developing its identity. Now, we have scores of separate identities---each coming first. Now, we mostly play defence, not offence---protecting our own little interests. How do you change that? I have no answer. It may be too late.
SO true, Ed! Vietnam created the momentum that aligned in groups, as "we" ....like you state...and now with masks further instilling less eye contact, creeping social "isolation" to less and less, freely and spontaneously communicate...the "we" seems destined to relate with our own little interests/groups...no outsiders to explore/spontanously engage with...seems, certain to escalate as the country matures in a post-Covid era.
I think the 70's was last decade to have had widest range of people from various backgrounds who also socialized...broadly speaking...and sense of respect for one another, from a social/demo standpoint...since now, its increasingly more aligned with if the other person is "like" me ...without FB thumbs pun....interesting to further ponder.
Not really surprising... "What is even more interesting is that the drop in birth rates has been across every race and ethnicity"
Women are more self supporting... NOT just financially, but of their own minds and dreams for their lives. That is a good thing. Women are full humans, and should be given the same respect as men to plan a life for themselves.
The 1950's brainwashed society that told women life was search for an MRS degree and a movie that stopped with "happily ever after" left women unfulfilled, and not knowing what to do when their kids turned 12 & didn't "need" them.
Re: the US research... why is the analysis subjective? "ONLY" 44%??
"Of those who don’t already have children, 50% of Gen Z-ers and only 44% of millennials in the U.S. report that they want to have kids"
?why a call out to "only"?
I would say that is a lot... 44% of Mill's women want to have a child plus all those in the age group who already have 1+ child. Add to that any who will adopt based on infertility.
Gen Z is not women in their mid 30's so they have not reached a final decision phase (aka weighing pros & cons & making the decision)
Last point, and a big one.
How many US births are actually planned? If the 50/44 %'s are stand in for "planned births"... then the final population will net out differently.
Other variants... whether marriage stays on the decline, and how that affects intention.
maybe not the best source, but something I hadn't heard before...
(https://www.guttmacher.org/fact-sheet/unintended-pregnancy-united-states#)
Cohabiting women had a higher rate of unintended pregnancy compared with both unmarried noncohabiting women (141 vs. 36–54 per 1,000) and married women (29 per 1,000).
So, more unmarrieds living together might mean more births.. in addition to planned kids.
"50% of Gen Z-ers and only 44% of millennials in the U.S. report that they want to have kids