• by Phil Leggiere , October 21, 2002

Tim Spengler has seen 17 seasons of media upfronts, downturns, and shakeouts. But this year, he has a new gig. And the new manager of Initiative’s national television has new challenges.

"My job," he says, "has become both harder, because there are so many more advertising possibilities to manage, and more interesting. There’s really much more of a chance than ever before to customize and individualize buying by client need."

Despite the ho-hum reaction of many critics to the networks’ recently unveiled fall lineups and upfront promos, Spengler is more encouraged. "It’s true there weren’t a lot of big surprises," he says, "but it’s too easy to criticize the networks. They have an unprecedented challenge to continue to reach a very wide base — though obviously not the kind of numbers they could before cable — while also now carving out a quality demographic."

For all the fashionable pundit chatter about the decline of the medium, good old TV, at its best, still delivers a unique blend of breadth and depth, Spengler notes. NBC, he says, remains the class of the field. The critical goal of all the networks right now, he explains, is to deliver the broadest portion of the 18–49 demo, especially its most affluent members. While other networks are sporadically successful at grabbing parts of that demographic, NBC has the widest appeal. He is similarly impressed with CBS’s success at rejuvenating its programming through CSI and other action-oriented, sexier, edgier fare, which is "subtly revitalizing their brand" without alienating traditionalists.

Though Fox stumbled badly last year, Spengler sees the network as basically strong, but in a transitional period. "They have a vacuum to fill with the aging of key shows, and obviously need to replenish their mix with a few breakout new shows, but they seem to be addressing that issue," he says.

Spengler remains skeptical about the Disney-owned network’s near-term prospects for a rebound. He does acknowledge rooting for ABC’s 8 p.m.–9 p.m. family-hour experiment, adding, "It’s a gamble, but when you’re down you need to gamble. It’ll be one of the intriguing wild cards to watch this year." An upstart network that deserves attention this year, according to Spengler, is the often underestimated WB, which has carved out a unique place with the teen and early-20s female audience.

Spengler believes that cable — no longer an underdog, with nearly 50% of the current viewing audience — is now "a more critical component than ever" of a balanced ad portfolio. He cites several standouts cutting through the 500-channel clutter. He singles out MTV and the Hallmark Channel, which has distinguished itself with original dramas and documentaries on contemporary issues.

Spengler sees modest growth in ad spending on network and cable this year, and welcomes the prospect of a return to at least a momentary plateau of normalcy.

"It’s been an amazingly strange ride the past two years, when you realize we’ve had the fastest growth ever in one year [almost 20% in 2000–01] followed by the worst year ever in 50 years. After a roller-coaster ride like that, it’ll actually feel great to come back closer to normal."