• by John Gaffney , October 22, 2002

Is it time to start worrying about media categories hitting their numbers? Might be.

A look at the trend lines that reach to April from CMR indicates that several media categories have a long way to go to reach their promised full-year increases. Spanish language TV, for example, is supposed to end the year up 10 percent, according to CMR. However, its performance through April is flat at best. Radio is supposed to be on pace to break a 6 percent growth rate. It, too, looks to be tracking at a flat rate.

Other media, however, are tracking to beat CMR’s own forecasts. Magazines are supposed to be headed for a flat year, according to the company’s forecast. But the chart below has it pacing well above last year’s performance. And the jury is out on newspapers. A recent Nielsen report says newspapers will end the year up 8 percent over last year’s revenue. The CMR trend is pointing downward for this most volatile media category. Cable TV looks like it will better its predicted revenue drop.