• by Bill McCloskey , May 29, 2002

I guess it’s time to make my predictions for 2002. I really don’t sound too enthusiastic, do I? The truth is, there really isn’t that much to predict for 2002. The big movements on the Internet are pretty much over, at least for next year. Next year is a period of refinement, consolidation, and clean-up. So rather than 2002 predictions, these are more like 2002 predilections.

Email. The big question for 2002 is: What is going to happen with email? This is one of those subjects that the email guys feel a bit ambivalent about: No one wants to brag that their business is going to take off big-time because of a national crisis. It’s like a wrecking crew breaking out the Champagne after an earthquake. But, as Emperor Joseph II said in the movie Amadeus: There it is.

The fact is, if there is any history generated at all next year on the Internet, it is going to be in the area of email. And particularly rich media email. Any direct marketers (especially traditional direct marketers) who are not at least looking hard at rich media email and giving themselves a crash course on the subject are going to be in the corner wearing dunce caps by 2003.

Wireless and iTV. These will also be big. Just not here in the United States. As hard as it is to believe, iTV is an actual business in Europe, especially in England. And people take wireless seriously there also, where their cell phones can actually accommodate a business setting up shop on the dial pad. Here in the United States, the growth in wireless advertising will happen around the PDA—which in most cases isn’t even wireless since major players in this space, like Vindigo, update their ads when users are hot-syncing their Palms to their Internet-connected computers. Only Streetbeam seems to be a truly wireless PDA advertising technology. And with the economy the way it is, don’t expect new companies or products to come streaming into this space, at least for a while.

Streaming. Like email, streaming companies will benefit from the fallout of 9/11 and the anthrax scare, especially in the B2B sector.

Macromedia Flash. The impression numbers for Flash ads just keep going up—dramatically—every week. The first week of September there were about 100 million Flash ad impressions. Last week there were more than 200 million. Every week it just steadily grows. Expect the next version of the Flash tracking kit to be out before the end of the year with support for tracking multiple objects in a Flash banner.

AOL. With the inclusion of both the Viewpoint player in AOL 7.0 and support for Bluestreak’s rich media ads, the big story of 2002 might just be that the AOL proprietary service will lead the charge for rich media advertising. At least that it the hope. The question remains whether AOL will realize what it has under the hood and can communicate that, not only to their advertisers but to their own ad sales team. If they do, expect to have to pay the monthly nut if you want to view what could be the best interactive ads of 2002.

Emerging Interest founder and CEO Bill McCloskey can be reached at bill@emerginginterest.com.

So there they are: my 2002 Predilections. Hopefully, I haven’t offended anyone, but just in case, I’m taking my phone off the hook for a week. But I’m always available for a free lunch!