• by Bill McCloskey , June 7, 2002

Rich media email will be the big breakout story of 2001 and finally make rich media respectable. Well, it was certainly a story, but not the breakout story I’d hoped for. Leader Radical Communication went under only to be picked up by MindArrow, who’s had their own share of difficulties this year with a stock fraud scandal. TMXInteractive and Dynamics Direct are still strong and gaining momentum but not the breakout story I’d predicted. But hope springs eternal: newcomer Netomat is gearing up for some cool email stuff, so we might have to push this prediction off till next year.

The chances that interactive TV will reach anywhere near widespread adoption in 2001 are equal to the possibility that Bill Gates will be standing in a welfare line in 2001. This one was dead on, but I wouldn’t make that prediction for next year. iTV seems to be finally getting some respect. I’m not predicting yet, but 2002 might just be the year for iTV.

The hot must-have holiday item for 2001 will be a cable modem. This one I’m going to take as a score. Broadband access skyrocketed in 2001 and cable modems were the clear winner over DSL (by a 2-1 margin). In fact, the phone companies still haven’t gotten it right. But then again, no one thought they would.

Internet radio, not TV, will be the killer app driving broadband adoption in 2001. Open that up to include MP3’s and I’ll claim another winner. The consumption of music, not video, has turned out to be the killer app on the Web. While Napster is dead, Aimster, Audio Galaxy, Bearshare, and other peer-to-peer software packages have taken its place.

The cable companies will win the broadband war in the home. The phone companies and DSL will lose. Okay, pretty similar to the cable modem prediction above. Still, I’ll take it as a win. Companies associated with serving streaming media will be streaming uphill in 2001. Actually, I’m not even sure what I meant by this prediction. In the article I was implying that streaming was going to take off, but you’d never know it by the way I worded this. Anyway, streaming, especially ad streaming is going on my list for 2002 as a hot item. This year, it was still gaining acceptance.

In-stream ads will become one of the dominant forms of Internet advertising by the fourth quarter of 2001. Well, that might happen, but I doubt it. Count this one a year too early.

Absolutely no one will receive a message on their cell phones offering them a dollar off a cup of coffee as they pass a nearby Starbucks in the year 2001. Just call me Nostradamus.

Emerging Interest founder and CEO Bill McCloskey can be reached at bill@emerginginterest.com.