• by Jack Myers , January 4, 2008

Happy new year. For all practical purposes, viewers will notice very little impact from the writers strike until late February, when the networks' backlog of scripted programs begins to run dry. This reality, more than any other, is why the Writers Guild of America members have little motivation to alter their negotiating strategy. The networks will not feel any real pain until the May upfront selling season, and even then the true financial pain is not inflicted until the fourth quarter 2008 and beyond.

With late night television returning -- bringing a short-term audience boost with it -- and with network television primetime appearing reasonably normal for the next several weeks, there is little reason for either side to change their negotiating strategies. Media agencies and advertisers appear to have little stomach for inserting themselves into the process and facilitating a discussion.

In response to my call for advertisers to pay a "strike tax" for three years, a senior advertiser executive points out that they have been paying a tax for years in the form of the outdated broadcast network "integration fee," representing millions of dollars annually paid to networks to integrate commercials into programming, a cost the networks no longer incur but continue to charge as an add-on. One idea being advanced is that networks instead contribute these integration fees for the next three years as a digital pay-down to writers, actors and directors. This does not, though, address the issue of the strikers' rights to benefits from their work on reality and other partially or fully unscripted programming. Nor does it recognize that the producers are simply not yet motivated to negotiate on the writers' current issues.

The networks will flex their muscle in the next several weeks, with most of your favorite series returning with two to 12 episodes, plus several new reality series, and even some new scripted series. Several returning series, especially NBC's "Friday Night Lights," CBS' "Jericho," HBO's "The Wire," Showtime's "The L Word," and ABC's "October Road," will air multiple episodes and have the benefits of scheduling and promotional advantages that would otherwise have not been possible. It could be a huge boost for these series.

Of course, Fox returns with "American Idol" on Jan. 15 and 16. "Idol" began to decline after Sanjaya left the show last spring, and the series would likely have declined noticeably this season for the first time in its history had there been no strike. But Idol will benefit enormously from the strike and now will continue to tower over everything. For January, there are two or three episodes of most major scripted series. NBC's "Las Vegas" has eight remaining episodes; "Extreme Makeover: Home Editio"n on ABC has a full 13 episode season premiering this Sunday; there will be multiple episodes of "Medium" and "Law & Order" on NBC, "Monk" and "Psych" on USA, along with Stargate Atlantis and Flash Gordon on SciFi. CBS has multiple episodes of "The New Adventures of Old Christine," "Survivor: Camden NJ"!), "Big Brother," "48 Hours: Mystery," "Numb3rs," and "Ghost Whisperer." FX has six episodes of "Nip/Tuck" and CW has 12 episodes of "One Tree Hill" in the can. Fox has five episodes of "Prison Break" and several episodes of "The Simpsons" and "King of the Hill." ABC also has multiple episodes of "America's Funniest Home Videos," "Boston Legal "(4), "Carpoolers" (7), "Ugly Betty" (3) and "Brothers and Sisters "(3). Sadly, there is only one remaining episode of "30 Rock."

New scripted series that will receive considerably more attention in the next few weeks are AMC's "Breaking Bad," premiering on Jan. 20; "Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles" on Fox (nine episodes beginning Jan. 13 and 14); "Cashmere Mafia," on ABC this Sunday; ABC's attorney series "Eli Stone"; and "In Treatment," an innovative nightly 11 p.m. half-hour drama on HBO. In February, NBC launches "Lipstick Jungle," another "Sex and the City" wannabe, and a remake of "Knight Rider. The Peacock net will also feature the first Internet-to-network series, the marginally successful MySpace series "Quarterlife," from the creators of "30something." Fox will air "New Amsterdam," and ABC will bring back "Men in Trees."

Reality and competition series will dictate the broadcast and cable networks fates in the next few months, with too many new and returning reality and competition series to name here. My favorites are ABC's "Dance War: Bruno vs. Carrie Ann"; "American Gladiator" on NBC; "Matched in Manhattan" on Lifetime; Oprah's "Big Give" on ABC; MTV's "That's Amore"; "Ghost Hunters" and "Guinea Pig" on SciFi; and "Are You Smarter Than a Fifth Grader "on Fox.

My personal pick for the biggest reality series hit this month: VH1's "Celebrity Rehab with Dr. Drew," premiering January 10.

What do you expect this month? Any change in the ratings? Any major shifts in late night? Any break in the strike? Tell me what you think.