• by January 18, 2001

Here is part 2 of excerpts from 'The Futurist' – continued from yesterday. Again, there's probably something important buried in here that will be extremely helpful to a marketer, planner or buyer for the development of strategies in the future. We do encourage you to read the whole report.

For four decades, Forecasting International Ltd. has conducted an ongoing study of the forces changing our world. Veteran forecaster Marvin J. Cetron of Forecasting International Ltd. and science writer Owen Davies describe some of these trends for our long-term future:

- By 2001, some 90% of insurance carriers in the United States will expand coverage or reduce premiums for policyholders with healthy lifestyles. Personal wellness, prevention, and self-help will be the watchwords for a more health-conscious population. Interest in participant sports, exercise equipment, home gyms, and employee fitness programs will create mini-boom industries.

- Consumer purchases show a per capita decline in annual liquor sales. Smoking is also in general decline. Only 29% of American men smoke, down from a peak of 50%; 23% of women smoke, down from 32%. There are many more magazines on health care and fitness than in the past. Again, this trend is limited to North America.

- The average child born in 1986 will live to be 74.9 years old--71.5 years for males, 78.5 years for females.

- Generations X and dot-com are virtually gender-blind in the work place, compared with older generations.

- One-third of Generation X returns home at some point in their early lives.

- Prefabricated (manufactured) housing will be cheaper than conventional construction, enabling older persons to afford housing wherever they want to live.for at least two more election cycles.

- The world used only 57 million barrels of oil per day in 1973, when the first major price shock hit. By 1999, it was using more than 73 million barrels daily. Consumption is expected to reach 110 million barrels daily by 2020.

- Natural gas burns cleanly, and there is enough of it available to supply the world's total energy demand for the next 200 years. Consumption of natural gas is growing by 3.3% annually, compared with 1.8% for oil.

- Nuclear plants will supply 16% of the energy in Russia and Eastern Europe by 2010.

- Solar, geothermal, wind, and wave energy will ease power problems where these sources are most readily available, though they will supply only a very small fraction of the world's energy in the foreseeable future.

- According to the EPA, 70% of U.S. landfills will be full by 2025; half the counties in California, home to 70% of the state's population, expect to run out of space by 2005.

- EPA mandates cutting tailpipe emissions 70% by 2004. New equipment required to meet that limit will add an estimated $100 to $150 to the sticker price of a new car.

- By 2040, at least 3.5 billion people will