• Reuters, Monday, May 18, 2009 9:45 AM

"American Idol" is still ruling the roost after eight seasons. What started as a cheesy summer show in 2002 has mushroomed into a cultural phenomenon. Its estimated $1 billion-plus brand spans everything from ice cream and trading cards to an attraction at Walt Disney World Resort.

But clouds are gathering as the show faces declining audiences and limits to its viewer-driven format. Revenue from "American Idol" declined $4.1 million to $24.7 million in the first quarter of 2009 compared to 2008. The show has also seen a 7% viewership drop this season. Added to the concerns is the possibility that British judge Simon Cowell could bolt the show when his contract expires in a year.

With viewer fatigue appearing to set in at "Idol," "they've done things to tweak it as best they can, but I don't know how much you can tweak it without alienating the core viewer," says Brad Adgate, a vice president at Horizon Media. Rival TV networks smell blood. While previously they steered away, they now are willing to compete with "Idol." This season CBS programmed "NCIS" opposite "Idol," and NBC countered with reality show "The Biggest Loser."

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