• by David Goetzl  @dgoetzl, June 12, 2009

It's not exactly an intellectual tour de force. But now that the much-hyped Canoe Ventures has hit some snags, it's fun to play with potential headlines if the slowdown continues. "Heading Downstream," "Facing Choppy Waters," "Sending People Overboard" (if there are layoffs) -- or a New York Post special: "Up (Bleep) Creek Without a Paddle."

If one of those puns heads a story, Canoe -- a cable industry initiative promising to transform advertising for national cable networks -- might be blamed for violating an increasingly smart PR strategy: lower expectations.

NBC is taking that tack with the launch of the prime-time Jay Leno show this fall. We have no shot at winning the 10 o'clock hour, the network says. Our ratings will be way down. We just want to do well enough to stay sort of relevant.

Charismatic CEO David Verklin has done the opposite, ramping up expectations about Canoe's potential so much over the past few months that missed deadlines and other hiccups now have many wondering when (maybe if?) the venture will find its sea legs. (Sidebar: Do canoeists face that challenge, or just deep-sea fishermen?)

"They have a long way to go," said a network executive who recently met with Canoe - echoing a refrain from many of his colleagues.

Still, it's hard to fathom Canoe will do anything but find some success. Its access to 60 million cable set-top boxes should help it break ground with interactive advertising, while providing networks with valuable second-by-second ratings data -- and other useful capabilities.

And Verklin is erudite and canny, while the six cable operators funding Canoe aren't in it for kicks.

Still, Canoe has glaringly failed to launch a promised national addressable advertising platform by May. The aim is to allow advertisers to run "split copy." So, a marketer could stream one piece of creative in about 40 million homes, while a separate ad runs in another 20 million at the same time.

The split would be based on household incomes. The approximately 20-million bucket would be homes with incomes of $100,000-plus, while the 40-million basket would be lower-income households.

At the Weather Channel (TWC), Paul Iaffaldano, executive vice president and general manager, is pulling for Canoe's "split copy" initiative to take off. The reason: his network has been offering this service on a national level for years. So, if Canoe prompts advertisers to take a greater interest in doing it -- perhaps even creating ads specifically for the process -- all the better for TWC.

"If more marketers thought (that) way," then TWC would benefit, Iaffaldano said. Advertisers, as a rule, are willing to pay a premium for more effective targeting.

TWC's addressable opportunities, on multiple levels, also go beyond what Canoe is promising. Using research from Nielsen Claritas, TWC can send separate ads into at least 62 different household clusters at once -- grouped by geographic, socioeconomic or other factors.

Each fragmented group carries a rather jocular moniker: from "Bohemian Singles" (eclectic students and writers living in rented high rises), to "Military Quarters" (military types who like "fast cars, action sports and bars"), to "Back Country Folks" ("centered in the Bible Belt," they "enjoy Christian and country music"). There are 59 others, from "Money and Brains" to "Boomers and Babies."

Alas, marketers haven't really taken full advantage of this opportunity. Amusement park chain Six Flags has run the most -- eight different spots -- at the same time, targeted by geography.

Overall on TWC, Iaffaldano says about 5% of the units that run employ some split copy -- and about 20 advertisers purchase the option in the upfront.

An example of how developed TWC's copy splitting is comes courtesy of Home Depot. TWC has a spot from the retailer in queue designed to run in areas after a tornado hits. Another: an insurance company -- likely looking to avoid the attention of some regulators -- opted to run one spot in 48 states, and another just in Michigan and Massachusetts.

To be sure, the technology propelling TWC's copy-splitting is an offshoot of the network's content operations. What makes TWC so successful is its ability to deliver local forecasts in 4,000 regions every 10 minutes, and that infrastructure offers the "split-copy" platform.

While Canoe is focusing on cable homes only, TWC is already looking at a way to execute "split copy" in more than just those 60 million households. It's had some discussions with DirecTV and Dish Network about bringing the option to some of the 30 million homes they serve.

Still, the Weather Channel is a single entity. Canoe has the potential to quench advertisers' thirst for addressable ads on ESPN, TNT and other top-tier cable channels -- which have higher-rated shows and entirely different demographics.

It just needs to get the boat headed in the right direction. Sorry, another hackneyed double entendre.