• by David Goetzl  @dgoetzl, October 8, 2010

Belo, the station group in multiple major markets, prefers to replace the "Oprah Winfrey Show" with less expensive local programming. A slew of its 20 stations will lose Winfrey next year, and while analyzing whether to acquire another syndicated show or keep the time themselves, they are leaning toward local.

Winfrey's show is going off the air in 2011, and the Belo stations could use her hour to add more news, or try other hometown options. "To the extent that the opportunity makes sense from a financial point of view [that] we can control the local programming, that's our preference in terms of going forward," said Belo CEO Dunia Shive.

Belo stations cover 14% of the country.

The desire to go local would impact the syndication business in some major markets and offers a snapshot of challenges that Winfrey's syndicator CBS Television Distribution could face on the revenue front.

The Belo stations in top 15 markets -- Dallas, Houston Phoenix and Seattle -- all carry Winfrey. Other affiliates -- Portland, Louisville and Austin included -- also have an hour of Winfrey afternoon programming that could be turned into local news.

Separately, while speaking to investors last week, Shive said that political revenues for the July-September period came in below expectations. The $11 million was "a little less than originally expected," but still above the $7.5 million captured in 2006, the last year with federal elections but no presidential race.

Shive said Belo stations are "not in California, we're not in Florida and some of the states where there are huge dollars pouring in." But a close Senate race in Washington state, where Belo has duopolies in Seattle and Spokane, could help between now and Nov. 2.

In Washington, well-funded incumbent Democrat Patty Murray is trailing in at least one new poll and facing an opponent who reportedly raised more money in the third quarter.

Regarding retrans-consent revenues, Shive said Belo is negotiating a new carriage agreement -- the current one expires this month -- with Dish Network. The satellite company has shown that it isn't afraid to take channels off the air. Belo recently reached an agreement in principle with Time Warner Cable.

Overall, Shive said the improving ad market -- spot sales were up 16% in the first six months of 2010, although helped by the Olympics and Super Bowl -- is heartening. Auto sales increasing nearly 50% through June have been encouraging too, she said.

Belo has station clusters in four regions: Texas, the Northwest, Arizona and a multifaceted area that includes St. Louis and Charlotte, N.C. Shive said: "Our revenues are not unduly tied to the economic fortunes or struggles of any particular region." Texas, which has the ABC station in Dallas and CBS in Houston, accounts for 41% of revenue, the largest chunk.

Shive told investors that the market for station M&A remains sluggish, and while Belo may be interested in more duopolies, regulatory issues are a hurdle. If Belo wanted a second station in Portland, the government wouldn't clear it.

Also, buyers and sellers would haggle over whether to use EBITDA and cash-flow figures from the troubled 2009 as a base for a sale price, or another year, or a combination.