• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, June 7, 2011

For Katie Couric it isn't a question of whether this is the second coming of Jane Pauley, but whether this the first coming of a newer kind of afternoon talk show.

  Launching a little more than a year after Oprah Winfrey's departure from syndication, Couric's afternoon talker from Disney-ABC Domestic Television will look to fill a gap -- if there is one.

Pauley's mistake? Being too much of a newshound for afternoon TV viewers who wanted lighter fare. Some point to the absence of celebrity content. The key to Winfrey's success was that she offered not just aspirational subjects but also focused her attention on Hollywood.

Pauley didn't want to head in that direction -- which many people believe was her downfall. Insiders, though, say Couric might lean the same way, especially as she continues to contribute regular news segments to ABC News as part of her deal.

Couric -- like Pauley, a "Today" show veteran -- has done plenty of celebrity interviews. But apparently both aren't generally known for this. Winfrey didn't start out known for celebrity interviews either; but she evolved into the role.

Publicly, Couric says that she wants to interview the likes of Michelle Obama and Lady Gaga. So that's a good sign. But Couric also says she wants to do "smart conversation." Smart and entertaining? Yes. Smart and boring? Not so much.

Disney-ABC has already cleared eight of its owned stations for Couric in the 3 p.m. hour -- but not the key 4 p.m. slots Winfrey had for the better part of two and a half decades. Some ABC stations will now air local news in that time slot.

But should Couric do well, perhaps she might move to the more lucrative time period, a key one where Winfrey gave a big lead-in rating push -- and higher revenues -- for local news programs.

If Couric succeeds -- and many give her tough odds in doing that -- what will be the key ingredient that puts her over the top?