TV's Fiscal Cliff? Maybe Just A Bump In The Road

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The TV economy has its own ongoing election: whether or not to continue voting for one's particular monthly TV service -- cable, satellite, etc.

In a post U.S. election period there isn't necessarily a fiscal cliff looming, though there could be a pay TV drop of some sort.

Bernstein Research shows that, overall, pay subscriptions have been generally flat year-to-year when looking at all multichannel TV distributors -- cable, satellite and telco. According to Bernstein media analyst Craig Moffett, that flatness is not good news, because there is some slow, growth in new household formation, which means pay TV subscriptions should be climbing to keep pace -- but they hasn't.

So in effect there is pre-emptive cord cutting. Maybe call it future cord avoidance -- slow moving changes. A little more than 90% of all U.S. TV homes have some kind of monthly subscription TV service.

Look at financial results from the likes of traditional cable TV operators -- Comcast, Time Warner Cable, and Cablevision Systems Corp., for example -- and you'd have to say some companies have been well prepared for this. Repeated quarterly results virtually always have shown slow, declining basic cable subscribers.

But, at the same time, those companies have also consistently posted always-growing data (broadband) and voice (phone-mobile) business. The same can't be said of the mostly video-only satellite TV businesses of DirecTV or Dish Network.

So it may not be a fiscal cliff for TV -- possibly a pothole for some, or a massive sinkhole for others.

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2 comments on "TV's Fiscal Cliff? Maybe Just A Bump In The Road ".

1. Auntie Johnson from Eleven TV
   

   commented on: November 8, 2012 at 10:16 a.m.
   First I love reading your informative articles. I am part of a new multichannel TV Distributor, Open Vision Networks, we have yet to go public, but our basic cable will be completely FREE and there is NO equipment to buy, also cable applications to watch REAL Scheduled programmed channels, NOT VIDEO on all smartphones, computers & tablets! Open Vision is the future! For more information contact lluvi@ten11consulting.com
2. Doug Garnett from Atomic Direct
   

   commented on: November 8, 2012 at 11:10 a.m.
   The interesting question is whether a return to slow growth (which I'm not certain census has confirmed) really should mean more subs. With the economy challenged, new HH formations may be dominated by lower incomes where merely getting the HH uses up free money ... Much less $70 for cable. But it remains a key question of concern. Interestingly, against the backdrop if Hulu problems and Netflix challenges, it seems clear consumer masses are merely voting for internet access to the video store...not for TV by Internet.

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