Armageddon and the Year of the Internet

This election year is frequently compared to 1992, given that both presidential races featured an incumbent named George Bush seeking reelection following a recession and a war in Iraq. Both elections proved to be landmark elections confirming dramatic changes occurring in society. In 1992, the "Year of the Woman" produced five new women senators and 24 new representatives and confirmed the rise of women in all aspects of government. This year is clearly the "Year of the Internet," as the 2004 campaign season is the first to fully use the Internet and, in doing so, demonstrates the extent to which this nation has embraced the Internet for both information and commerce. Just as the "Year of the Woman" represented a breakthrough that would continue to grow (women now hold 14 Senate seats and 73 House seats), the "Year of the Interne"t represents the beginning of a great opportunity for marketers and politicos alike.

Despite this recent success, not all politicos have fully grasped the reach and specific communication opportunities offered by the Internet. The reach is clear. According to a recent Nielsen study, nearly 75 percent of households have Internet access with approximately 45 percent having high-speed access.

The reach is even greater in the workplace where users potentially can be reached eight hours a day. A Websense/Harris Interactive survey reported that 80 percent of workers at companies with 100 or more employees have Internet access and, according to eMarketer, nearly 90 percent of such employees have high-speed access. In the Websense survey, 51 percent of employees admitted to spending one to five hours per week on the Internet for personal purposes. A RoperASW study found that 95 percent of "business networkers, news junkies, and community movers and shakers" accessed the Internet daily and 82 percent of them did so multiple times each day.

In addition, the Internet reaches the demographics that politicos love. A Pew Internet and American Life Project study demonstrated that at least 42 percent of each age group relies on the Internet for political information, while a George Washington University study found that 69 percent of those accessing political sites are opinion leaders in their communities. The Pew Research Center for the People and the Press reported that Internet users tend to be "highly informed and heavily weighted toward what campaigns describe as swing voters." Moreover, the Internet is able to reach this year's principal swing demographics - suburbanites and Hispanics; as over half of Internet users are suburbanites and nearly one in ten are Hispanics, according to the Pew Internet study.

Today the Internet is the wild west of American politics since the Federal Elections Commission has exempted the Internet from McCain-Feingold soft-money restrictions and disclosure requirements. Internet campaigns also allow a candidate to be more aggressive and still generate the same media buzz as television campaigns. A prime example is the Bush campaign's latest "Webmercial" comparing Kerry to a cicada which was widely reported in offline media.

The Internet success stories in the core aspects of political activity are more telling. Meetup.com helped the Dean campaign organize a nationwide grassroots network that grew to 159,000 people in three months. The network not only enabled the campaign to generate large crowds at rallies without a large field organization (such as the 15,000 who turned out for Dean in Seattle), but propelled Dean to the front of the pack in both the polls and fundraising.

While a grassroots organization is important, money still remains the "mother's milk" of politics. The Dean campaign revealed how the Internet could be an engine for fundraising, but it has been the Kerry campaign that showed what a "turbo- charged" engine can achieve. Kerry used the Internet to raise $10 million in 10 days and has raised $35 million to date online - one-third of his total fundraising.

MoveOn.org, which has grown to 2 million plus members, has demonstrated how the Internet can be used by advocacy groups. It is now the fifth largest "527 organization" and has spent over $14 million so far this election. MoveOn.org's first-ever Internet primary drew 317,693 "voters" (which is greater than the 2004 turnout for Iowa and New Hampshire combined) and widespread media attention.

On the state level, RecallGrayDavis.com's recall petition was downloaded nearly 500,000 times. This is a substantial amount considering that to qualify for the ballot the petition needed the signatures of 897,158 registered voters.

Pollster John Zogby calls 2004 the "Armageddon election" since partisans on both sides believe victory by their opponent would be a catastrophe. This "Armageddon" environment ensures that the election will be intensely contested and closely watched. Given that six states with a total of 59 electoral votes were decided by a combined 24,731 votes in 2000 and Republicans only hold a one vote majority in the Senate, both parties will spend substantial amounts trying to maximize their reach. There could not be a better environment for marketers to demonstrate why this is the "Year of the Internet."

Bennet Kelley is Vice President of Legal & Strategic Affairs for Hi-Speed Media, Inc., a ValueClick company. ValueClick provides marketing solutions for commercial and political advertisers.