• by Philip Rosenstein , Staff Writer, December 15, 2015

Much has happened since the first Republican debate back in August. Highly respected candidates have been forced out of the race, or forced down in the polls. The establishment has failed to coalesce around one candidate.  

Donald Trump has been the big story — and he still is. His expected demise has not materialized and probably won’t any time soon. The only way for this to happen, it seems, would be for him to mute his rhetoric and move to the center. Which has no chance of happening.

A Monmouth University national poll released yesterday shows Trump with the biggest lead yet at 41% — a 27 point lead over his closest rival Sen. Ted Cruz, who has 14%. Rounding out the top four spots are Sen. Marco Rubio with 10% and Dr. Ben Carson at 9%.

The poll was conducted between Dec. 10 and Dec. 13, following the outrageous Muslim ban put forth by the Trump campaign. All other candidates, including Jeb Bush and John Kasich, polled at 3% or below.

Of significance over the past few weeks is Cruz’s rise to the top of the Iowa polls. He's solidified his position as the No. 2 Republican candidate nationally. This is an added blow for  the party establishment.

Cruz rode into the Senate on the Tea Party wave and has consistently butted heads with Senate Republicans, even castigating Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell on the Senate floor. He will never be an establishment candidate. If there is an exodus in Trump supporters, many will turn to Ted Cruz.

Carson’s sharp fall in popularity probably means an early primary exit for him, leaving Rubio as the only candidate with any sort of concrete support base, besides Trump and Cruz.

Wolf Blitzer, tomorrow’s debate moderator, will have much to address, and we will probably see strong push-back from the candidates to Trump’s recent comments. Expect this from Bush and Kasich, who will need to put all their chips on the table to have a sliver of a chance, come the Iowa primary Feb. 1.