Commentary

NBC Hails Late-Night King Johnny Carson and Upfront Ad Market

The day after NBC Universal TV Group president Jeff Zucker said NBC was headed for another "very good year" in upfront ad revenues, Johnny Carson, the network's beloved long-time late night host, died.

Perhaps it's an official somber reminder things are not as they were at NBC.

Zucker didn't spell out exact upfront advertising revenue expectations at last Friday's TV Critics Association meeting in Los Angeles. No doubt NBC will pull in good ad revenue - especially as it still commands premium pricing for many programs among two important advertiser Nielsen demographic data groups -- adults 18 to 49 viewers with incomes of $75,000 and more, and adults 18 to 49 with incomes of $100,000 and more.

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Still, NBC's near $3 billion take in last year's upfront is almost certain to take a fall this year. CBS Chairman and Viacom Co-President/COO Les Moonves already said CBS wants to add 'hundreds of millions' of dollars to its coffers in the May/June 2005 advertising upfront market. We can make an educated guess where he thinks the money will come from.

Few TV press accounts followed up on any upfront financial detail. Earlier projections are that maybe NBC's upfront take could fall to $2.7 billion, say, with CBS rising to $2.6 billion. That would be the narrowest upfront ad dollar margin among the top two ad revenue networks in years.

Still, it's somewhat of a victory for NBC. Though it could lose the all important ratings race, NBC could win the more important upfront advertising dollar race. That is what Zucker was seemingly referring to in talking about another 'very good' year.

Even then Zucker is hopeful for better ratings for the second part of the season. He said shows like "Medium," "The Biggest Loser," and resurgent "Law & Order" might put NBC strikingly close to the top spot in adults 18 to 49 ratings.

CBS is in the lead, but as witnessed in the November sweep, ABC is contending with its two new shows "Desperate Housewives" and "Lost." And now in January Fox is back --- "American Idol" has rocketed to bigger numbers than last year, and Fox had expected ratings would fall this year.

"You'll probably have about three-tenths, at the most, separating the four networks when you include everything at the end of the season," said Zucker. "It's never been this close."

So the 2005 upfront positioning has already begun for the TV advertising market -- a business that has seen a poor performing fourth quarter and a seemingly no better performance in the first quarter.

It wasn't like this in Johnny Carson's day. There were clearer winners and losers. When Carson departed in 1992, he was "the king of late night," and NBC was dominant in all revenue and ratings parameters -- the network continued that reign for many years.

Now NBC is the one being reined in.

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