• by Philip Rosenstein , Staff Writer, February 1, 2016

In just a few hours, the first Iowans will start arriving at the 1,681 caucus locations across the state to pick their nominee for president of the United States. Later in the evening, we will have the first real numbers on paper in this most unconventional of election seasons.

Former front-runner in the nation’s first electoral contest, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, will desperately need a win considering the effort his campaign has put into Iowa.

Cruz, who pledged to visit all of the 99 counties in Iowa, has spent significant time and funds in the Hawkeye State. His team on the ground is robust, and his digital strategy has been more vigorous than that of his GOP colleagues.

In the last round of polling, figures from a Bloomberg/Des Moines Register survey have Donald Trump again rising above Ted Cruz with 28% to 23%. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who many say has the momentum going into tonight’s caucuses, comes in third with 15% of the vote.

The big question: With a possible snowstorm in the mix tonight, who will turn out to vote?

Looking at the GOP leaders’ support base, Cruz does very well with the evangelical vote.

Evangelicals are historically more likely to caucus, and as pollster Ann Selzer said on “Face the Nation” yesterday morning, “[Cruz] can bring [his poll] numbers a lot closer on caucus night with a good turnout among that constituency.”

Trump has courted the evangelical vote as of late and will hope that he has made inroads with them, too.

The Trump campaign’s strategy will be put to the test. Instead of the traditional “Iowa play” that Cruz has doubled down on, Trump holds big rallies and shows up in “Trump Force One.”

The Democratic fight is intense, too. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton carries 45% of the vote to Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders’ 42%, in the Des Moines Register. Considering the four-point margin of error, the two are statistically tied.

Bernie Sanders is competitive in the first two voting states, Iowa and New Hampshire. If he can pull off a strong showing in Iowa and win in New Hampshire, the race could start to feel reminiscent of 2008.  

Hillary Clinton does better among older voters when compared to Bernie Sanders. Conversely, Sanders does better with the youth vote and has the enthusiasm of the activist wing of the Democratic Party. Helpful to Sanders are the 43% of Iowa Democrats that identify as “socialists.”

Some key questions will be answered tonight. Among the most intriguing: Is Trump’s strategy working? Has the media over-hyped Sanders’ rise? Can we trust the polls going forward?