• by Philip Rosenstein , Staff Writer, April 5, 2016

Will Bernie Sanders’  momentum carry him to a win in Wisconsin? Will the languishing fumes of a difficult week for Donald Trump give the anti-Trump movement the platform it needs to block his nomination?

Wisconsinites will help answer these questions, today, in what could be a turning point in both the Democratic and Republican nominating contests.

Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders could add a fourth “primary” win in Wisconsin tonight, following successes in the “open primary” states of New Hampshire, Michigan and Vermont. Sanders has a better chance in open primaries (and he often convincingly wins in caucus states, which are largely white and rural) — and where one does not have to be a registered Democrat to vote.

Coming off a string of strong results, with no signs of his cash flow slowing down, Sanders is poised to continue to dog former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton into the latter stages of the Democratic nominating contest.

With a host of pro-Sanders variables in play, including a high number of college-aged voters, and a heavily white electorate, there is a good chance the Senator gathers the majority of the 86 Wisconsin delegates.

Recent polls show Sanders ahead or effectively tied. His chief strategist, Tad Devine, explained the importance of the state: “If we can find a way to win there on Tuesday, it’s a big deal. It’s a battleground state, it’s a statewide primary.”

On the GOP side of the ticket, the situation looks rockier. The current speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, Paul Ryan, represents the state, and former presidential candidate Scott Walker, who took an early hit from Trump’s rise), is governor. Both are averse to a Trump candidacy, as is the strong conservative punditry of Wisconsin.

Trump is trailing Texas Sen. Ted Cruz in RealClearPolitics’ polling average, whereas the most recent poll conducted by the American Research Group, Inc., shows him ahead by 10 points. RCP has coined Wisconsin as “Ground Zero in the effort to stop Trump.”

Trump seemed to show some regret for the Tweets he put out in the past week and took a more subdued tone speaking with Fox News Sunday, “I think I’m doing OK.” A loss in Wisconsin today may be the first real chink in the Trump armor.

The Wisconsin primary is also amplifying support for a Paul Ryan nomination. A Republican insider told Politico that there looks to be a 60% chance of a contested convention, with an incredible 90% chance that delegates eventually turn to Ryan, hence giving a 54% that Paul Ryan, who will serve as chairman of the convention, becomes the nominee.

“He’s the most conservative, least establishment member of the establishment,” the GOP source told Politico, adding, “That’s what you need to be.” Ryan has said he is not seeking the Republican nomination for President. That, however, is exactly what he said about the Speakership, while detailing certain requirements he expected his fellow Representatives would not accept.

Running for president is clearly a different story.

A significant Trump loss in Wisconsin could spell further disappointments for the Republican front-runner and may ultimately usher in an unanticipated Ryan nomination, which for all intents and purposes would make the Democratic nominee’s job much more difficult come November.