• by David Kaplan , March 24, 2005

British comedy imports have had a rough time making it on these shores lately--anyone remember NBC's "Coupling?"--but the newest sitcom arrival premiering Thursday, "The Office," which also airs on NBC, has a more promising future, according to an Initiative analysis of "Internet buzz."

Last fall, Initiative, in a joint venture with TVtracker.com and Trendum, unveiled PropheSEE, which analyzes both the amount and the sentiment of Internet discussions about TV programming that occur in public online forums, discussion boards, and newsgroups.

"While there are existing sources that monitor the quantity of mentions and some that actually might provide some level of evaluative overlay, PropheSEE represents the first time that advanced Internet sorting technology, program engagement measures, and quality development data have been combined," said Stacey Lynn Koerner, executive vice president, director of global research integration, Initiative.

According to PropheSEE, "The Office" has been following in the "chat room" footprints of other successes such as "Desperate Housewives." (The show will premiere Thursday at 9:30 p.m. before moving to its regular time period at 9:30 p.m.)

"I saw the pilot last summer and thought it was great," Koerner said. "It's not like any other comedy currently running, and is not what people will expect. There is a small audience that has followed it here when it aired on BBC America. It has a very loyal following, and it's got people on the Web talking about it.

"It's been tracking fairly well on PropheSEE and it's been between the top five and 10," she continued. "It's been building the last several months. 'Desperate Housewives' and 'Lost' tracked similarly well on PropheSEE, so it's got a pretty good success rate in its own right."

As for "The Office" itself, the American version follows the daily interactions of a group of idiosyncratic office employees via a documentary film crew's cameras. The regional manager Michael (Steve Carell, "The Daily Show") thinks he's the greatest boss ever--although he's actually clueless and obnoxious. His co-worker Jim (John Krasinski, "Kinsey") lusts after engaged receptionist Pam (Jenna Fischer, "Miss Match") when he's not sabotaging his cube-mate, the know-it-all Dwight (Rainn Wilson, "Six Feet Under"). Meanwhile, the entire office is constantly worried about the impending staff cuts. Will there be layoffs? Will there be office romance? Will the boss ever shut up?

In addition to "The Office," if PropheSEE's track record holds up, Fox's "American Dad!" could be another hit. From "Family Guy" creator Seth MacFarlane, "American Dad!" is the animated story of Stan Smith, who works for the CIA and is constantly on the alert for terrorist activity. Stan will go to extremes to protect his beloved America from harm--as evidenced by the terror-alert color code on his fridge, and his frequent knee-jerk reaction of shooting holes in the toaster whenever the toast pops up.

"'American Dad' has ranked in the [PropheSEE] top 10 since last October," Koerner said. "Much of the buzz has surrounded its creator, whose previous work was 'The Family Guy.' It got a lot of buzz in February because it premiered after the Super Bowl. So it should do very well."