Henry Blodgett, the dot-com-era analyst famous for publicly saying one thing but privately meaning the opposite, trashed AOL in a recent post on his blog Internet Outsider. Specifically, he said AIM
Pages is a good five years too late, and even if the product is ten times better than MySpace, it's still "going to bomb." Why? Simply because MySpace got there first, and 70 million people don't want
to do it all over again. AOL should know, he says: AOL Instant Messenger dominates its space for exactly the same reason. I'm gonna play devil's advocate for a minute and point out that AIM Pages does
have some legs to stand on: the free service comes with a built-in 43 million strong user-base, which could help it gain traction among slightly older Gen Y consumers. What do 25- to 34-year-olds use
more, AIM or MySpace? Probably AIM, which means they might be persuaded to give it a try--especially since they don't have to sign up or find new friends. But, as Blodgett points out, many AIM users
already use MySpace, and there's no incentive to switch. Everyone will agree that AOL needs a hit--bad. Others are predicting Time Warner will spin-off the struggling unit sometime this year.
Read the whole story at Internet Outsider »
