• by Michael Hanley , June 28, 2007

Depending on which mobile expert you talk with the launch of the iPhone will either be a seminal event in the future of cell phones or an over-hyped non-event about a so-so mobile device with plenty of weaknesses. I think it will be both.

The launch of the iPhone along with the incredible amount of free publicity it's received since its announcement by Steve Jobs in January will go down in PR history.

But be careful what you ask for. The anti-iPhone pundits are also making plenty of noise about the cell phone that seemingly everyone will want.

But most of us won't want one. Why? Take your pick. It's $499 or $599. Its service plans are only available through the slow AT&T network. Kind of like racing an Indy car on a dirt track.

Its recently upgraded battery can't be replaced, only recharged. There are no games. Can't IM, record video or type on a real keyboard. If you get lost, there's no GPS to find your way.

Want more? You can't access iTunes directly via Wi-Fi or Edge. No way to expand memory. And you can't use songs as a ringtone.

Other than that, it's nearly ergonomically perfect. Really. It's beautiful. Classic Apple design. Touch screen technology at its best.

At least Apple hopes so. But since Apple only hopes to sell 5 million or so in the U.S. in the first year ( there are 236 million mobile phone in the U.S. today), should be a slam dunk. Right?

Don't bet on it. A recent survey from Harris Interactive found that half of U.S. mobile phone users only use the phone for -- da da -- making calls. It's true more and more cell phone users are doing text messaging, but most other uses of cell phone are way below 10%, except for sending and receiving photos at about 25%.

Seems as if people want a cell phone with all the bells and whistles, but they don't use them. Cost is a reason why. Too technically complicated is another reason. Bottom line: There are already a plethora of cell phones and smartphones on the market that do exactly what the iPhone does. If people wanted those they could have bought them already, a bunch cheaper than the iPhone.

So who will buy the iPhone? Those same 2-3 million people who bought the iPod when it first came out. Plus a million or so smartphone business types who can get their company to buy the phone and pay for the monthly plan.

Will the iPhone sell? Yea. Will it change out mobile culture? Probably not. Will it get our attention? Duh.