• Wired, Monday, January 28, 2008 11 AM

Are you bullish or bearish about the tech sector during a recession? Conflicting reports from conflicted analysts abound, but industry watchers think it's downhill from here for tech. Venture capitalist Paul Kedrosky says that big techs like Apple, Google and Amazon "are the most consumer dependent technology companies in the history of technology. Uunlike prior recessions, consumer spending is going to heavily damage those companies. That's why you're seeing so much nervousness about Google and so much nervousness about Apple. It's not a good place to be."
What happens in a recession? Mergers and acquisitions activity will likely grind to a halt, and ad-based Web businesses will take a serious hit. How big a hit? "When ad spending falls off, it will fall off a cliff, " says Kedrosky.

"There are reasons to be concerned, but should we be really, really concerned? I don't know," says economics professor Mike Davis of the Southern Methodist University Cox School of Business. Schiffman says the Fed's "emergency" decision to cut interest rates by "a fairly extreme" 75 basis indicates a looming recession; investors seem to be bracing for one. The tech-heavy Nasdaq has taken a hit of 17 percentage points since Oct. 31.

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