• by Jeff Gagne , July 14, 2008

Tiger Woods' was once scheduled to play in this past weekend's Buick Open, which would have marked his first tournament since his dramatic US Open victory. That triumph was followed by the announcement that reconstructive knee surgery would sideline him until 2009. The news came at a critical moment in televised golf's recent history, as the interest level following the dramatic conclusion of the US Open just two days prior was arguably the most momentum the sport had seen in the past 10 years.

The July 7 US Open coverage on NBC delivered a rating of 7.6 marking the best Monday golf number in 30 years, as well as set records for most live on-line streams for any single sporting event. That type of a performance would have set the stage nicely for sustained interest in the final two majors of the year, as well as the second installment of the Fed Ex Cup Playoffs. Instead, the telecast of the next perceived "Tiger Event" did a 1.5 rating, 61% below the last time Tiger played in the Buick Open. As a result, the PGA has some major challenges to overcome before his return.

As a rule of thumb, Tiger Woods has the ability to influence a rating by 50%; ratings saw 58% in 2007 when he played and on several occasions during the past decade, his presence at the top of the leaderboard has more than doubled a rating on any given Sunday. Typically, networks sell off this upside in the hopes he plays in their events, and they hold back enough inventory to typically cover the shortfall.

In 2007, Tiger played in nine events after the US Open, and found himself in the winner's circle six times. Tiger is notoriously consistent, and as a result, the networks have already sold these same events at a significantly inflated number. The reality: the PGA Tour coverage hasn't achieved a single 2.0 rating in a regular event since March. CBS and NBC may find themselves owing advertisers "2 for 1," which certainly does not reflect their sales model.

But despite what some headlines might warn, this all happened at a time in the golf marketplace when the majority of sales were complete -- and the financial hit to the networks will be marginal. The implications are far worse for actual entitlement sponsors. The pain felt by this group will be compounded well beyond poor performing media schedules, particularly with those events that specifically rely on Tiger's appearance to drive brand exposure, ticket sales, merchandise, and corporate hospitality initiatives.

The unparallelled success of this most recent US Open also represents a danger for the sport moving forward.

It was swiftly followed by a 1.7 rating on Sunday at the Traveler's Championship on CBS, a mere 20% of the US Open's Sunday rating only six days later. This is a clear example of "the haves and the have-nots" in the PGA. The Tour continues to grow its number of once-rare 1.0 rated days each year, but still maintains the potential to deliver explosive ratings when the stars are perfectly aligned. Tiger's already limited schedule feeds this dilemma, and the wake of his injury will be very telling for the Tour's potential to sustain interest without its biggest star.

Apart from the two remaining majors (The PGA Championship and British Open), NBC has two significant upcoming platforms that will clearly be a focal point of Tiger's absence: the Fed Ex Cup Playoffs and the Ryder Cup. These events might be the best opportunity the PGA Tour has to rebound from this blow, as they possess intangibles in the golf world that are somewhat "Tiger-proof."

The Fed Ex Cup Playoffs were essentially a lock for Tiger last year, and he most likely would have entered them this year with the top seed in the points system, thus handicapping the rest of an already weaker field. However, the winner's share for the Playoffs is valued at $10M, something that means far more to the current field of contenders than it does to Tiger Woods, the highest paid athlete in the world.

This life-altering prize could add some much needed theater to the Tiger-less field, assuming someone compelling can step up and captivate us. Similarly, The Ryder Cup relies on national pride to peak public interest. Viewers are inclined to route for all the golfers on the US team, vs. a tournament where they might favor one individual over another.

The match play formats also help add a lengthy national spotlight to individual golfers that might otherwise not see as much media attention. If the PGA Tour can manage to produce a few good stories out of its remaining 2008 events, it will not only help salvage the remainder of this season but strengthen itself going into 2009. It's crucial to inject some much-needed life to the non-Tiger events going forward, as well as added intrigue to his inevitable return.