• BusinessWeek , Monday, December 29, 2008 11 AM

It matters little what sector you're in: 2008 was a lousy year for most businesses, particularly advertising. And if you believe the forecasters, 2009 isn't supposed to be much better, either. Just last week, Barclays Capital lowered its projection for advertising in the U.S. to a negative 10% next year, with every single traditional media sector receiving a major hit. By comparison, advertising fell just 1.9% in the 1991 recession, and 6.2% in 2001.

However, while Barclays and others expect the rest of advertising to get torched, online advertising is still expected to grow between 6 and 10% next year over 2008 levels. In fact, according to BusinessWeek, advertising may see the kind of seismic shift next year that is now bringing about unprecedented changes to the financial and automotive sectors. "The harbinger of advertising's radical transformation is the sustained growth of online," the report says, noting while the rest of the sector takes a big hit, "online is holding its own."

A new survey from PermissionTV, which queried 400 senior-level marketing decision makers, found that online would be the least affected by budget cuts among all major commercial media. Why is that? As IAB Chief Randall Rothenberg notes, in a typical recession, "above-the-line dollars [move] below the line." Pay as you go approaches are more appealing to big advertisers than "betting one what may come" (i.e. mass-market TV/radio approaches). Instead, advertisers are looking increasingly for accountability and targeting.

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