• by Mark Walsh  @markfwal, March 2, 2009

Shrugging off the deepening recession, the U.S. wireless data market surged 39% to $34 billion in 2008, according to a new study by mobile advisory firm Chetan Sharma Consulting.

The rise of 3G wireless networks, smartphones and the mobile application ecosystem combined to set the stage for strong growth last year. But the longer the recession drags on, the more likely the U.S. mobile industry will mirror the broader economic downturn.

Chetan Sharma warns that if conditions do not improve in the next one to two quarters, consumers will begin cutting back on mobile data spending and even downgrading mobile plans. GDP declines in previous recessions, from 1990-91 and 2001-03, led to falling mobile subscriptions and service revenues that rose again with the GDP and as the economy rebounded.

Of course, things like SMS text messaging and mobile video hardly existed during the last two downturns, so making an apples-to-apples comparison is not really possible. But given the industry's history and the fact that the current recession is more severe than the prior two, mobile data growth is expected to slow considerably in 2009.

"If the job losses continue at the current rate, we will start to see flattening of data revenues in Q109 for some operators and a gradual decline over the course of the year," according to the report. For all of 2009, that trend will lead to mobile data revenue growth of 15%--less than half the rate in 2008. Mobile data, however, will continue to claim a larger share of average revenue per user, increasing from 25% last year to 30% by the end of 2009.

When it comes to mobile advertising, Chetan Sharma's crystal ball isn't so clear. The firm acknowledges that mobile ad spending is shrinking as some brands are scaling back on experimental marketing budgets. But it also points out that others are shifting dollars to mobile as a more efficient ad buy in difficult times.

"In fact, for the mobile media and content ecosystem, mobile advertising lends very well to the belt-tightening trends," according to the report. "It will be interesting to see if operators use this opportunity to lay the foundations of a long-term mobile advertising strategy or ignore it completely."

Among wireless carriers, Venison Wireless led the way last year in mobile data subscribers, with nearly three-quarters using some form of non-voice service. Buoyed by the iPhone, however, AT&T had the most net new mobile data subscribers in 2008, at 2.1 million. At the other end of the spectrum, Sprint lost 1.3 million during the fourth quarter alone.

Overall, new mobile subscriptions last year fell 32% to 15 million as the U.S. market approaches saturation. For the first time, the number of new mobile subscribers declined quarterly in the second half of 2008, underscoring the urgency for wireless operators to boost mobile data subscriptions and revenue.