• by Wayne Friedman , April 9, 2009

Interpublic Group of Co.'s Magna forecasts that in five years, DVR usage will grow more than 70%, to 51.1 million U.S. TV homes.

Magna estimates this will reach 43% of all U.S. TV homes in 2014, up from 27% as of the end of 2008. Overall, the projection is that DVRs will contribute a 4% erosion in total viewing impressions across all dayparts over a ten-year period -- from 2004 to 2014.

But in general, the growth in TV usage can make up for this erosion -- which has been rising less than 1% per household in recent years -- as well as an increase in total TV homes overall, at more than 1% growth per year.

All these factors will result in total viewer impressions rising 20% overall in ten years.

During the fourth quarter of 2008, 1.3 million DVR homes were added.

Video on demand, a more mature digital TV product than DVRs, will grow by 61% in five years to 67.2 million households -- about 56% of U.S. TV homes. Currently, at the end of 2008, there were 41.7 million VOD households, or 37% of U.S. TV homes. During the fourth quarter of 2008, VOD grew by 1.3 million homes.

In terms of broadband -- which is increasingly another vehicle for video consumption -- Magna expects broadband access to rise to 86.5 million homes in five years from the 69.5 million, or 59% of the country's 118 million households that exist today.