• The New Yorker, Wednesday, April 15, 2009 11:15 AM

James Surowiecki opens his Financial Page column this week with the instructive tale of Kellogg and Post trying to maintain the toeholds they'd gained for ready-to-eat cereal in the 1920s once the Great Depression hit. Post drastically cut its advertising; Kellogg doubled its budget and launched Rice Krispies. Both brands survived, but Kellogg remains the dominant player today.

The AAAAs has, of course, long maintained that companies that advertise in a recession emerge triumphant. Surowiecki seems to pull in every study ever done that would support that thesis, but he's also wise to point out that, for all the success stories out there, the historical record is also full of forgotten companies that gambled by not reining in expenses and failed. Fuller, one suspects.

All of which leads to the conclusion: "Today, most companies are far more worried about sinking the boat than about missing it. That's why the opportunity to do what Kellogg did exists. That's also why it's so nerve-racking to try it."

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