• by December 8, 2000

According to the new eGlobal Report, approximately 5% of the world's adult population 14 and over, 229.8 million people, are currently active Internet users.

The report indicates that as access to the Internet improves throughout the world, the number of active users will rise to 640.2 million by 2004. Even then, only 14% of the world's adults will be actively using the Internet.

The report defines "active" Internet users as people who spend at least one hour per week online.

The eGlobal Report, released yesterday by eMarketer, also reveals that various forecasts of total worldwide e-commerce revenues by year 2004, range from $963 billion (ActivMedia Research) to $4 trillion (Forrester Research). IDC Research projects $2.8 trillion and Goldman Sachs & Co. estimates $3.48 trillion.

"During the past year, the web's infrastructure, Internet access technologies, and online content have increased substantially as the Internet continues to evolve," said Nevin Cohen, Ph.D. and Senior Analyst at eMarketer.

The eGlobal Report indicates that near-term (2001 to 2002) and future (2003 to 2005) growth of e-commerce will be driven by the B2B segment, not retail business-to-consumer (B2C) transactions. The B2B sector currently accounts for 79.2% of total e-commerce activity, but will grow to 87% of total e-commerce by 2004. By 2004, the report projects, worldwide B2B e-commerce will reach $2.776 trillion in revenues.

"Though it is less fun to write about automated supply chains than buying custom-fitted Levis online, the B2B sector is worth far more in revenue than retail online shopping," said Cohen.

The eGlobal Report also found that the physical infrastructure of the web - measured in hosts, servers, webpages, and the devices connecting users to them - has expanded substantially. The cost of connecting to the Internet is beginning to decline as well as countries privatize and deregulate their telecommunications sectors.

Additionally, mobile telephone penetration rates have soared in both developed and developing countries. The popularity of wireless connections to the Internet has altered the concept of surfing. The ubiquitous Internet is finally becoming a reality as a wide range of Internet access devices have proliferated.

eMarketer says the days of US Internet hegemony are numbered as the language and content of the Internet is rapidly changing. Debates on how to narrow the digital divide took center stage this year. Although B2B e-commerce revenues have always exceeded B2C dollars, in 2000 e-commerce became vital for business success. Despite the predicted popularity of digital money delivered through smart cards, old-fashioned credit cards and the even more traditional cash-on-delivery systems still dominate B2C and consumer-to-consumer (C2C) transactions.