Survey: Mobile Execs See Big Ad Gains In 2010

Nearly half of mobile industry executives and analysts in a new survey expect mobile ad spending to double this year, while almost one-third expect it to grow by 200%. That's quite a bullish outlook. The survey by mobile consulting and research firm Chetan Sharma on 2010 predictions also covered topics including app stores, tiered pricing and mobile payments.

The continued growth of mobile data worldwide is expected to be the top mobile story in 2010, followed closely by the new Google phone and Android, with the rumored Apple tablet computer rounding out the top three.

When it comes to whether Android-based phones will outsell the iPhone in 2010, however, 57% said "no," with the balance about evenly split between "yes" and "maybe." At the same time, the 150 people surveyed believe the biggest impact of Google launching its own phone (the forthcoming Nexus One) will be to help the search giant go "toe-to-toe" with Apple in the smartphone market.

Usage-based pricing for mobile data became a hot topic after AT&T Mobility head Ralph de la Vega suggested the carrier might consider imposing congestion pricing to help reduced bandwidth consumption. According to the survey, 35% don't expect the major carriers to turn to tiered-pricing at all this year, 34% predict it will start in the third quarter, and 25% in the second quarter. Only 6% think it will begin in the first quarter.

While divided on when tiered-pricing might emerge, more than half of mobile executives view that step as the most likely to gain traction for managing bandwidth consumption. Backhaul upgrades and the build-out of 4G networks were the next-most-cited solutions.

What devices other than phones will be big? Netbooks were cited by 41%, followed by e-readers (21%), and tablets (15%). And Motorola was the company pick as "comeback kid" in 2010, outpacing others like Microsoft, Nokia and Sprint by a wide margin.

One area where industry executives were not optimistic was the wireless carriers' own app stores. Almost half (47%) predict they will lose steam this year and 26% by next year. Only 20% believed carriers' branded app storefronts will be around for a long time.

On the regulatory front, the mobile industry doesn't appear overly concerned with a more aggressive Federal Communications Commission under Chairman Julius Genachowski. Nearly 70% said the FCC's national broadband plan to be submitted to Congress in February either won't have any impact until the courts rule on it, or it won't matter anyway.

The majority of survey participants (53%) were from North America, followed by Europe (15%), Asia (12%) and other regions (20%). And 35% described themselves as CXO-level officers, 29% as vice presidents, 15% as managers, 12% as directors, and 9% as analysts.

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