• by Sarah Mahoney  @mahoney_sarah, August 3, 2010

Despite some early bullish predictions for this year's back-to-school spending, forecasters are now seeing some definite weak spots. Nielsen is estimating a modest 1.7% gain in the office and school supplies category to $.2.6 billion. But that includes a 5.3% decline in units.

"In this jobless recovery, consumers continue to be really mindful around consumption," James Russo, VP/Global Consumer Insight for Nielsen, tells Marketing Daily. "While there are a couple of exceptions, consumers on the whole are still very restrained."

One exception, he says, is likely to be consumer electronics, "including next-generation cell phones, iPads, and new computers." But it's not because parents see themselves as splurging, he says, "but that these are now viewed as necessary, not discretionary."

Online sales also have the potential to pop, says Russo. "Across the board, we've seen a decreased number of shopping trips in virtually every retail channel," he says. "That's been a consistent theme. But we've also seen them spending more time online, so Web sales could be a potential bright spot."

The National Retail Federation, which last month predicted a 10% gain in overall back-to-school spending, reports that parents who are shopping online will spend $266 more than parents who will only shop in stores.

A new survey from American Express is also a bit more optimistic, reporting that while 41% of consumers plan to keep spending level with last year, 39% say they plan to up the ante.

But that study also finds an intense commitment to saving a buck when they can, with 63% saying they will set a budget and 94% looking for ways to stretch their dollars, either by shopping for sales or clipping coupons.

But there were also a few signs that parents are willing to relax a little more this year. For example, 45% plan to spend some of those BTS bucks on cosmetic services such as haircuts, waxing, and even a few tattoos. And 68% plan to buy designer labels or brand-name sneakers, jeans, and shoes.