• by Sarah Mahoney  @mahoney_sarah, August 3, 2010

Despite some early bullish predictions for this year's back-to-school spending, forecasters are now seeing some definite weak spots. Nielsen is estimating a modest 1.7% gain in the office and school supplies category, to $.2.6 billion. But that includes a 5.3% decline in units.

"In this jobless recovery, consumers continue to be really mindful around consumption," James Russo, VP/ Global Consumer Insight for Nielsen, tells Marketing Daily. "While there are a couple of exceptions, consumers on the whole are still very restrained."

One exception, he says, is likely to be consumer electronics, "including next-generation cell phones, iPads, and new computers." But it's not because parents see themselves as splurging, he says, "but that these are now viewed as necessary, not discretionary."