• by Jack Loechner , Staff Writer @mp_research, December 4, 2001

A recent release by Rex Nutting, Washington Bureau Chief of CBS.MarketWatch, pointed out that the Conference Board's monthly index, which has fallen five months in a row, fell to 82.2 in November from 85.3 in October. The index read 132.6 a year ago. Economists expected a slight increase to 86.2. While consumers are increasingly pessimistic about the current economic situation, they are growing more hopeful about the economy six months ahead.

The consumer confidence index closely tracks the unemployment rate: when consumers have jobs, they feel hopeful. "Rising unemployment and continuing layoff announcements are dampening confidence," said Lynn Franco, director of the board's consumer research center. He said, "A turnaround in confidence levels is not likely before year's end, nor are retailers likely to enjoy a blockbuster holiday season."

But Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, feels that "This is a good report," noting that the present index merely reflects the jobless rate, a lagging indicator of activity. Currently, the percentage of consumers who think jobs are plentiful fell from 20.9% to 17% in November while the percentage who think jobs are hard to get rose from 20.7% to 21.4%.

Buying plans were mixed. Those who expect to buy a car in the next six months fell from to 6.5% and those who expect to buy a home fell to 3%. However, plans to buy major appliances rose to 29.4%.

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