• by Ken Liebeskind , December 20, 2001

The Smirnoff ad on Saturday Night Live last Saturday was a historic event - the first network ad for liquor in 50 years. But what that means for the future of television advertising is still up in the air.

For now, Guinness UDV is the only liquor advertiser and NBC the only network accepting liquor advertising. The other major networks have all said their bans on liquor advertising will remain in effect. But that is likely a temporary move according to some industry experts. "It's a wait and see reaction," says Alan Banks, executive media director for Saatchi & Saatchi North America. "They won't jump in, they'll go slow and deliberate and see how it's received. If it's done in a responsible way and if the model is accepted by the viewing public, I would suspect others will follow."

Another television advertising executive, who requested anonymity, was even more emphatic. "There's no question it will be on all the networks," he says. "They're all going to have it. I've never seen a network turn down revenue."

The first ad prompted opposition from the American Medical Association, which charged NBC with putting profits ahead of the nation's health and welfare. But NBC received support from other groups, including Mothers Against Drunk Driving. "NBC's done a smart marketing job lining up an important constituency," the TV ad executive says. In general, "the reaction has been muted," he notes. "Stations were concerned about the reaction from Washington, but it's been muted, so nothing will stop them." Presumably, the federal government could intervene, like it did with cigarette advertising, but there is no indication it will do so, the executive says.

Many have praised NBC for the elaborate set of guidelines that govern the ads, with an advertiser required to run four months of socially responsible ads before branding ads run. The first ad for Smirnoff featured a hand turning over glasses on a bar beside a set of car keys to promote designated drivers.

The ads were created by Glover Park Group and Westhill Media Partners, but neither agency did the media buy. Jeannine Dowling, vice president of communications at Guinness UDV, would not reveal the company's media buying agency.

Of course, the profit motive is hard to avoid. The spots start during a television advertising downturn when even Super Bowl ads are hard to sell. The opportunity to launch a new category is a big opportunity. Last year, beer and wine advertisers spent $501.5 million on television, broadcast's 11th biggest spender. Meanwhile, liquor companies spent only $25 million on TV advertising on the cable networks and approximately 300 local stations that have allowed it since 1996. "In a soft market, it's a product category dying to get on the air. It's revenue they desperately want, so it's easy to speculate it's part of their motivation, too," Banks says. Industry estimates say $300 million could be spent on liquor advertising.

Kassie Canter, a NBC spokeswoman, says the Guinness ads will run on late shows, including the Tonight Show with Jay Leno and possibly Late Night with Conan O'Brien. Ads could appear on shows at earlier times if the audience demographic is 21 and older, but none are scheduled yet, she says. The Guinness campaign will run at least four months, because of an NBC requirement. Guinness's contract with NBC has been valued at multi-millions, but no details were available.

When asked whether NBC would accept ads from other liquor companies, Canter said, "We'd talk to any other company that will adhere to our standards."

Another industry expert projects the amount to be spent on liquor advertising to be insignificant. What the ads will do is help networks use up more ad inventory and tighten the supply, enabling them to raise prime time rates, he says. But it remains to be seen how much liquor advertising will run, where it will run, how much revenue it will generate and how it will transform television advertising.