• by Larry Dobrow , July 9, 2003

While the magazine business inched forward during the first six months of 2003, the industry endured a mild setback in June, according to audited data released yesterday by the Publishers Information Bureau (PIB).

For the year-to-date total magazine ad pages have increased 1.8% and ad revenue has surged 9.9%, to $8.59 billion, over 2002 levels. June, however, saw a slight tumble in ad pages (3.2%, to 18,833.7) versus the year-ago period - somewhat of a troubling sign for a business thought to be on the rebound, even though ad revenue was up 8.5% (to $1.58 billion).

Ellen Oppenheim, executive vice president and chief marketing officer of Magazine Publishers of America, acknowledged the June dip but cautioned that it is unwise to put too much stock in a single month's results. "It could be a scheduling issue or any number of other things," she said. "Overall, we're still seeing strength in the biggest categories." Among the factors Oppenheim says might have affected the June results: the War in Iraq. "Remember - the [advertising] decision date for a lot of [publications] was in March, and we had a war going on in March. Some advertisers reacted to this more strongly than others."

Of the 12 ad categories monitored by PIB, those that had been advertising extensively in magazines (automotive, home furnishings and supplies, and drugs and remedies) continued to do so. The categories that had been staying on the sidelines (financial, insurance and real estate, direct response, and public transportation, hotels and resorts) didn't exactly pick up the pace.

Oppenheim was particularly enthused by the performance of the technology category, which enjoyed its second consecutive month of ad page and revenue growth. Overall, however, only four of the 12 ad categories grew their pages during June, though seven experienced growth in ad revenue. For the year to date, the numbers look somewhat better: five of 12 categories are up in ad pages and nine are up in ad revenue. (The 12 categories comprise more than 85% of total ad spending in magazines.)

Most troubling were precipitous drops in two of the categories that had seemed to gain momentum during the first five months of the year: retail and apparel/accessories. During June, retail ad pages shrank to 734.6 from 961.8 during the year-ago period, a decline of 23.6%. Similarly, apparel and accessories fell 20% in ad pages, down to 1,166 from 1,457.7 in June 2002.

Oppenheim attributes the drops in these and other categories to the economy. "Not to repeat myself, but that's the overriding factor," she says, suggesting that the January-to-June figures paint a more accurate portrait of the condition of both categories. Indeed, for the year to date retail is down 1.2% in ad pages and up 6.5% in ad revenue ($414.7 million) against 2002 levels; apparel and accessories are up 2.1% in ad pages and 13.5% in ad revenue ($585.2 million).

As for individual titles, the top five ad page percentage gainers in 2003 were Blender (up 124.5%, to 329.6 ad pages from 146.8 in the first six months of 2002), Guideposts (98%, to 173.7 from 87.7), Elle Girl (93.1%, to 176.7 from 91.5), Lucky (69.6%, to 660.6 from 389.5) and Real Simple (62.4%, to 562.4 from 346.3). Four of these five publications posted similarly large percentage increases in ad revenue: Blender (up 181.8%, to $11.1 million from $3.9 million in the first six months of 2002), Weight Watchers (160.8%, to $8.6 million from $3.4 million), Elle Girl (139.5%, to $4.8 million from $2.0 million), Lucky (124.7%, to $34.2 million from $15.2 million) and Real Simple (120.6%, to $46.5 million from $21.1 million).

Notable first-half losers included Golf World (ad pages dipped more than 26% and the title was lapped by rival Golf Magazine) and Martha Stewart Living (down 29% in ad pages and 25% in ad revenue, owing at least in part to the legal troubles of its matriarch).