• by Wayne Friedman , May 13, 2011

With just two weeks to go in the regular TV broadcast season -- and right before the upfront TV presentations -- Fox is tracking to take another crown in the still important 18-49 ratings race. 

Fox is averaging a Nielsen live-plus-same-day 3.5 rating among 18-49 viewers after 33 weeks of a 35-week season. Fox recovered from its disastrous start -- a fourth-quarter 2010 period where ratings were down 15% or more, due in part to the quick cancellation of "Lone Star" as well as other under-performing shows.

Fox will be down 5.3% from a year ago. It also benefited from airing the Super Bowl -- always a major factor in a network's seasonal performance. Even without the Super Bowl -- and still thanks to "American Idol" -- it would have been ahead.

CBS is tracking for a second-spot placement with a Nielsen 2.9 rating among 18-49 viewers, down 8.2% versus a year ago. CBS has been strong in most media buyers/' eyes, just looking at regularly scheduled entertainment programs. For most of the season, leaving out its airing of last year's Super Bowl, CBS was actually up in 18-49 viewers -- a rare occurrence for most TV broadcast networks.

ABC will decline around the same amount as CBS -- 8.5% now with two weeks to go. It's currently at a 2.4 average rating among 18-49 viewers.

NBC will sink by massive double-digit percentages. Right now, it is down 14.4% to a 2.3 rating number -- but the decrease is not being blamed on NBC's usual entertainment series woes. It was up against last season's big numbers, which included much higher prime ratings for a two-week period in February from the Vancouver Winter Olympics.

The only broadcast net to show gains is Spanish-language Univision, which is up 8.6% to a 1.5 rating. Lastly, CW is down 5.2% so far to a 0.9 rating in 18-49 viewers. While this is not its primary demographic -- it is more narrowly targeted to women 18-34 -- it has also had mediocre results this year.

When looking at the overall 18-49 rating average, the five English-language broadcast networks are down around 9% year-to-year so far -- again faring against the higher ratings of the Winter Olympics of last season. Without the Olympics, the numbers are off around 5%.

As usual, CBS will grab the top spot among total viewers -- now running at 11.7 million viewers. Fox is at 9.7 million viewers; ABC is at 8.4 million; NBC has 7.10 million; Univision is at 3.71 million; and The CW claims 2.01 million viewers.