Commentary
Media Intelligence Forecasts Moderate Rise In Overall Ad Spending For 2003
- by Jack Loechner , Staff Writer @mp_research, January 19, 2003
Ad spending is expected to rise 3.3 percent in 2003, up to $117.5 billion, according to the full-year forecast released January 14th by CMR/TNS Media Intelligence.
"For 2003, we see a continued rise in ad spending," notes Steven J. Fredericks, president and chief executive officer, CMR/TNS Media Intelligence. “Spending in 2002 benefited from key drivers such as the Olympics and the recent election season. Even though 2003 will not have those market stimulants, we are expecting the year to show improved year-over-year growth."
Looking at the quarter-by-quarter trends, spending will exhibit stronger growth through the first half of the year, due to more favorable year ago comparisons. Lower growth rates are expected as the year progresses into the 3rd and 4th quarters, reflecting comparisons to stronger year ago levels, when the market began to recover and election spending was at a high.
2003 FORECAST QUARTERLY GROWTH TRENDS
| TIME PERIOD (2003) | CHANGE VS. 2002 |
| First Half | 4.5% (e) |
| 1st Quarter | 4.2% (e) |
| 2nd Quarter | 4.7% (e) |
| Second Half | 2.1% (e) |
| 3rd Quarter | 2.7% (e) |
| 4th Quarter | 1.6% (e) |
| Full Year 2003 | 3.3% (e) |
SOURCE: CMR/TNS Media Intelligence (e) = Estimate
The report predicts spending increases in 2003 for all major media, with Spanish language television leading the way, predicted to grow 9.2 percent from its 2002 total, which closely follows demographic trends and the increasing attention advertisers are paying to the vitality of this market.
Internet and Cable TV advertising are also predicted to show significant gains reflecting a technologically savvy public and the increased viewership for cable and satellite television.
GROWTH ESTIMATES FOR 2003 BY MEDIA
| MEDIA | PERCENT ESTIMATE |
| NETWORK TV | 2.7% |
| SPOT TV | 1.9% |
| CABLE NETWORK TV | 4.8% |
| SPANISH LANGUAGE TV | 9.2% |
| SYNDICATION | 2.5% |
| CONSUMER/SUNDAY MAGAZINES | 2.7% |
| B2B MAGAZINES | 3.6% |
| NEWSPAPERS (NATIONAL AND LOCAL) | 2.6% |
| RADIO4 (LOCAL, NETWORK AND NATIONAL SPOT) | 3.8% |
| OUTDOOR | 3.4% |
| INTERNET | 7.4% |
Source: CMR/TNS Media Intelligence
Jack Loechner is the Editor of The Center for Media Research's daily Research Brief. You can reach him at jack@mediapost.com.