Commentary
Internet Population to Max Out at 80% of Population, 75% of Households
- by Jack Loechner , Staff Writer @mp_research, March 22, 2003
Ben Macklin, Senior Analyst with eMarketer, explains that as the online population matures, the remaining offline population consists of those least likely to feel the need to use the Internet. He says that since surveys show that those who currently do not use the Internet say that they have no compelling need to do so, it seems apparent that Internet penetration will peak at 75% to 80% of the US population.
A recent UCLA survey shows that not having a computer continues to be the primary reason for not being online, but those who have no interest getting online follow closely behind.
Reasons the Americans Do Not Go Online, 2002 (% respondents who do not use the Internet)
Source: UCLA Center for Communication Policy, Feb 2002
The Yankee Group predicts continued PC growth over the next five years so that 84 million, or three-quarters of all households, will have a PC by 2007.
US PC Households (% of total households)
- 2000 62.8%
- 2001 65.3
- 2002 67.6
- 2003 69.6
- 2004 71.3
- 2005 72.7
- 2006 73.8
- 2007 74.5
According to Banc of America Securities' estimates, average selling prices for PCs fell by 7.2% in 2000 in the US, and another 3.7% in 2001. Since there is a strong correlation between income and PC ownership and, likewise, a strong correlation between PC ownership and Internet access, the fact that PC prices are falling is helping bridge the digital divide.
Average Selling Price of a PC in the US
- 2001 $1,317
- 2002 1,394
- 2003 1,355
- 2004 1,293
- 2005 1,227
- 2006 1,164
You can find out more here.
Jack Loechner is the Editor of The Center for Media Research's daily Research Brief. You can reach him at jack@mediapost.com.