• by Frank Saxe , March 3, 2003

Radio kicked off 2003 on an up note as total combined local and national ad sales dollars rose 6% in January, compared to the same month a year ago. National revenue continued its double-digit recovery with a 20% increase, but local numbers caused some concern. They were up only 3% over January of 2002.

“January figures strike a refreshing reminder that the year had started off well for radio, particularly in national spot,” said Leland Westerfield, an analyst at UBS Warburg. “It’s worrisome, however, that local trended poorly. As the year proceeds, comparisons will grow more difficult, making a target of 5-6% growth an evermore-allusive goal for many radio operators. Still, this year will likely be stronger for radio advertising than any other media, in my view.”

The combined total sales index for January, 2003 was 141.6 while the national index came in at 152.3 and the local index was 140.2. Gary Fries, President and Chief Executive Officer, RAB, said the numbers reflected the medium’s ability to perform in an uncertain environment. He claimed that it well positioned to continue growth in several advertising categories. Other observers said that forward bookings were the key to the radio’s health.

Said S.G. Cowen analyst James Marsh: “January is such a small month so few care about it. March is the month to watch in the first quarter. It is material (40%-plus of 1Q revenues) and has been mentioned as month where visibility has declined. Are soft pacings a good indicator for March, or will revenues simply get booked at the last minute? April is also key month for investors, currently pacings are strong in April suggesting advertisers might be attempting to avoid March uncertainty and leap frog to April. Time will tell.”