• by Joe Mandese  @mp_joemandese, August 12, 2003

Ad spending in the major media in the second-quarter expanded at twice the rate of the first-quarter, according to new estimates released Tuesday by Nielsen Monitor-Plus. The data, the latest in a string of recent positive indicators, reinforces the notion that the U.S. ad industry is once again on track and has fully recovered from the derailing effects of the war in Iraq earlier this year.

The report, which can be read at Monitor-Plus' new Web site (www.nielsenmonitor-plus.com), also supports the moderate ad growth projections of several industry forecasters. Through the first half of 2003, spending in the 11 major media measured by Monitor-Plus grew 2.8%. The rate of growth for the second-quarter was 3.6% compared to 1.8% in the first-quarter.

At these rates, Jeff King, managing director of Monitor-Plus, believes total 2003 spending could end up growing "3% to 4%."

That's about the range of what the leading forecasters anticipated. Universal McCann senior VP-director of forecasting Bob Coen has been projecting a 4.6% rate of growth, while Zenith Optimedia Group's latest revision calls for a 2.7% expansion in U.S. ad spending.

The just-released Communications Industry Forecast from Veronis Suhler Stevenson calls foresees a 3.8% rate of growth.

While the overall trend is upward, the Monitor-Plus data reveals some trouble areas among major media and top marketers.

Five of the media tracked by Monitor-Plus continue to report downward momentum, including cable TV (-4.6% through the first half), national newspapers (-4.4%), network TV (-4.0%), syndication (-3.5%) and network radio (-1.4%).

Meanwhile, some of the nation's top advertisers have also scaled back spending for the first five months, including General Motors (-7.6%), Daimler Chrysler (-17.2%) and Pfizer (-8.1%). On the upside, some top advertisers have been expanding their market positions, especially Procter & Gamble, which boosted first-half ad budgets 30.6% and actually overtook GM as the nation's largest advertiser during the first five months of 2003.

First Half 2003 Ad Spending Growth

Hispanic TV
+19.1% 
National Magazines     +13.7% 
Local Newspapers        +9.9% 
Coupons (FSIs)          +7.3% 
Spot TV                 +4.0% 
Spot Radio              +2.1% 
Network Radio
-1.4% 
Syndicated TV           -3.5% 
Network TV              -4.0% 
National Newspapers     -4.4% 
Cable TV                -4.6% 
Total                   +2.8% 

Source: Nielsen Monitor-Plus. Spot Radio is monitored in 19 markets; Newspaper reflects display ads only; FSI includes packaged goods only.