• by Adam Bernard , March 27, 2001

By Adam Bernard

It seems the entire world is going to have a boom in Internet usage over the next three years. Everyone except the United States, that is. According to a new report by eMarketer, Europe, Asia and Latin America are all predicted to have tremendous growth in Internet usage over the next three years, all of them more than doubling their current number of users.

In Europe, there are currently 70.1 million adults (adults were defined as people at least 14 years of age), but the prediction is that number will reach 254.9 million in 2004. Meanwhile, Asia is supposed to reach 173 million users in 2004, which is a huge jump from their current number of 48.7. Latin America, which currently boasts 9.9 million Internet users, is predicted to have 40.8 in 2004.

The United States, though predicted to grow at a decent rate, is currently experiencing a bit of a slowdown in growth. With 87.9 million users right now, the US is only expected to have 143.1 million in 2004. This is a classic case of the biggest kid in school. Everyone had one, he was the guy who was 5'8" in fifth grade, but if you saw him today, he'd be 5'9". The US was the first to grow, so a slowdown has to be expected. To grow at the rate the other areas are predicted to grow at would be impossible. The 5'8" kid would end up being 9'4".

What the US can show us, though, are good demographic breakdowns of who is using the Internet. Since the user base is already grown, the numbers the US puts out are more telling of the way things could potentially be in other countries. When it comes to Internet penetration by age, 75% of 18-29 year olds, and 74% of 12-17 year olds, lead the way. The Internet population is also predominantly white, with eMarketer saying that 76% of the Internet's users in the US are white.

While the US isn't going to have the huge growth of other countries, it will be able to provide us with insight into what may happen in those areas. We're the lab rat that survived.

- Adam Bernard may be reached at AdamBernard@mediapost.com