• by Heather Watson , October 29, 2012

We have seen the 2012 election media spend shift based on brief moments within each of the debates. Quickly turned phrases like "Big Bird," "Binders of Women" and "Horses and Bayonets" dash media plans and have political media buyers scrambling to create new strategies to defend or capitalize on these moments of interesting word choice.

And now the October Surprise could shift the spend once again, due to a more somber issue…something neither campaign can control. Could Hurricane Sandy (aka Frankenstorm) be an event that could make or break the election on November 6th? Hurricane Sandy has already had unfortunate consequences, taking the lives of more than 40 people as it made its way through the Caribbean. Florida has been feeling the effects of the storm for the last 24 hours (as of this writing on Friday) as the massive storm moves its way toward the United States and the East Coast braces itself and prepares for the storm, still not knowing where it will ultimately hit land.

Impact of early voting?

Early voting started in Washington, D.C. on October 22nd in Florida and Maryland on October 27th. Hurricane-fueled weather could deter people from heading to the polls for early voting. Romney has already cancelled a Sunday evening rally in Virginia Beach. And both campaigns are looking at schedules and making adjustments as needed. The hurricane could impact the 2012 election media spending strategy in several ways:

1.       The focus of the last week of campaigning might shift to the areas hardest hit, cutting the number of campaign stops in some battleground states

2.       How candidates show support for hard-hit areas could sway undecided voters as President Obama attends to this national emergency instead of focusing on the election

3.       Media spend will shift even more to a ground strategy to impact voter turnout -- particularly in battleground states impacted by the weather

Only time will tell whether Hurricane Sandy becomes the October Surprise. The media spend will shift as needed to compensate for this. But as we brace ourselves for the worst and hope for the best, it’s difficult to concern ourselves with how the hurricane will impact the elections. Our focus and thoughts go to those impacted by the storm.