• by Paul Gough , March 25, 2004

Turner Broadcasting predicted that ad-supported cable would end up ahead of the seven broadcast networks in prime time household viewing this year, in what would be the first time in a full television season.

The forecast came during a press briefing convened Wednesday afternoon by Turner Research at Time Warner's new headquarters near Central Park in New York City. Chief research officer Jack Wakshlag said that ad-supported cable was on track for its second straight victory in prime time household viewing in the first quarter. Ad-supported cable networks combined for a 49.7 in the first quarter so far, compared to the seven broadcast networks' share of 47.2 in prime time household viewing, according to Turner Research analysis of Nielsen Media Research data.

What's more, Turner Broadcasting's projections are calling prime time household viewing in cable's favor, with cable forecast to end up with a 50.1 share, compared to a forecast of 47.3 for the seven broadcast networks.

That matters a lot to the cable industry, which tells agencies and advertisers that cable TV remains vastly underrated compared to the broadcast networks. According to Turner Research analysis presented Wednesday, the broadcast networks have a 71 percent share of prime time ad dollars season-to-date compared to 29 percent for ad-supported cable. Yet season-to-date, ad-supported cable together has 49 percent of the prime time household share of viewing, compared to 48 percent for broadcast TV and the rest of other.

"There's certainly a significant amount of discussion about dollars shifting from broadcast to cable, people getting more for less," he said. "This is an interesting thing that's happening in the business."

It's no secret that cable wants to get more of those dollars. At its upfront presentation Tuesday evening, ad sales chief Joe Abruzzese touched on a topic that has become familiar since he moved from the top job at CBS sales: How cable is undervalued. The cable industry has been saying that for years, and Turner Networks with its Media atthe Millennium project suggested that reach didn't have to be sacrificed when advertisers moved money from broadcast to cable.

Expect more of that this upfront season from Turner, Wakshlag said.

"One of the things that we've talked about in the Millennium process is the myth that broadcast networks are the only place you can get reach--that you can't get reach if you advertise on cable networks," Wakshlag said.

He pointed to the last week's telecasts of the Mel Gibson-Helen Hunt movie "What Women Want," which ran four times during the weekend and earned TNT a 5.7 percent unduplicated audience number among adults ages 18-49 when ranked against the week's top broadcast programs. That compared to the top show, an edition of "American Idol" that delivered an 11.3 in the demographic. According to Turner, "What Women Want" outdelivered all but seven broadcast network shows, among them NBC's "Las Vegas," "Average Joe: Adam Returns," and "ER." The TNT data reflects the unduplicated rearch of one spot in each of the four prime time telecasts, Turner Research said.

"This doesn't mean that the show delivered the same rating. What it does mean is that if you're smart about how you use cable, you can get broadcast-type numbers," Wakshlag said.

He acknowledged that the movie's numbers were smaller. But he added: "The point still is that if you're an advertiser, and this [broadcast show] costs you a half a million dollars and this [cable telecast] costs your $300,000, what's the quantitative difference--even the qualitative difference?" Wakshlag said. "You can get big numbers if you use cable smartly."

Steve Sternberg, executive vice president/director of audience analysis at MAGNA Global USA in New York, said it's no surprise that at some point ad-supported cable in the aggregate would pass broadcast with more than 60 ad-supported networks, and more being added every year.

"I think it's interesting, relatively meaningless, but interesting," Sternberg said. He said that it's more important to look at other measures, including average ratings and also the gap between the average broadcast rating in prime time on a household basis.

"If you look at average ratings, it's [cable TV] still way below broadcast ratings," Sternberg said. "There are only seven or eight cable networks that get a 1 rating on households."

But he noted that in 1995, the average broadcast rating in prime time on a household basis was about 12 times the average of the top 10 ad-supported cable networks. Now it's only six times as high, he said.

"So cable--not just overall, but the strongest cable networks--are getting closer to the average," Sternberg said. "That, I think, is more significant than the total of the cable networks."

The Cabletelevision Advertising Bureau, the New York-based trade association for cable networks, couldn't be reached for comment Wednesday about the data. But the Television Bureau of Advertising, which represents local TV stations that are affiliated with broadcast networks, took issue with the study. TVB President Christopher Rohrs said that the cable data generally includes every cable network, but only a portion of the broadcast networks. When totaling their numbers, TVB includes not only the broadcast networks but also independent stations and the Spanish-language broadcast networks.

"I find that absolutely unacceptable that cable continues to not count Spanish audiences when they do their tally of broadcast networks," Rohrs said. "What's up with that? I don't know how you can justify that. These are strong, growing audiences."

TVB's data, available through calendar year 2003, show that broadcast still holds a lead over ad-supported cable.

"It's also important to look at this competition in a wider context than just aggregate delivery," Rohrs said. "Program ratings are also a telling barometer." He said that program popularity is crucial because it's the way people watch TV. In 2003, broadcast TV had 790 of the top 800 network programs, according to TVB analysis of Nielsen Media Research data.

"It says something about the nature of cable's 'growth' that after all these years of proclaiming their ascendancy they can only place 10 shows in the top 800," Rohrs said.

Sternberg said that the cable networks are doing a good job of inching closer to the broadcast networks, but they're not there yet. He also said that ad-supported cable taking a TV season in prime time household delivery won't alone cause a lot of advertisers to switch from broadcast to cable.

"What's going to get more advertisers to switch over to cable is that there's more specific cable properties that are attractive to advertisers than ever before. There are more individual programs that are doing better than ever before," Sternberg said.